{"uid":"cap_J91F6N5-5l5pDUNDodUYX","slug":"alphapipeline-neg-risk-arbitrage-334a96c9","name":"AlphaPipeline Neg-Risk Arbitrage","description":"Detect basket arbitrage in a Polymarket neg-risk (mutually-exclusive, multi-outcome) event - since a full YES basket across all outcomes always settles to exactly $1, a basket price away from $1 is a near risk-free edge. Also computes buy/sell_basket_capacity_shares, the actual liquidity-bottleneck size executable right now, so this is not just a top-of-book mirage. Polymarket only (Kalshi's Data ToS forbids this use of their data). Paid in USDC on Base.","url":"https://alphapipeline-eu.onrender.com/v1/prediction/neg-risk-arbitrage?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","$schema":"https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema","required":["input"],"properties":{"input":{"type":"object","required":["type","method"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string","const":"http"},"method":{"enum":["GET","HEAD","DELETE"],"type":"string"},"queryParams":{"type":"object","required":["event_slug"],"properties":{"event_slug":{"type":"string","description":"Polymarket event slug, from the event's URL on polymarket.com."},"max_slippage_pct":{"type":"number","description":"How far past each leg's best price to walk the book when sizing executable basket capacity. Defaults to 1.0."},"min_net_edge_pct":{"type":"number","description":"Minimum net edge (% of $1 basket notional) required to flag arbitrage_viable: true. Defaults to 1.0."},"assumed_round_trip_cost_pct":{"type":"number","description":"Estimated all-in cost (Polygon gas for the neg-risk adapter's convert call, taker fees, slippage buffer) as a percentage of $1 basket notional. Defaults to 1.5."}}}},"additionalProperties":false},"output":{"type":"object","required":["type"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string"},"example":{"type":"object","title":"PredictionNegRiskArbitrageResponse","required":["generated_at","event_slug","num_outcomes","assumed_round_trip_cost_pct","buy_basket_capacity_shares","sell_basket_capacity_shares","opportunity","arbitrage_viable","data_source"],"properties":{"notice":{"anyOf":[{"type":"string"},{"type":"null"}],"title":"Notice","default":null},"event_slug":{"type":"string","title":"Event Slug"},"data_source":{"type":"string","title":"Data Source"},"opportunity":{"type":"string","title":"Opportunity"},"generated_at":{"type":"object","title":"TimestampPair","required":["utc","kst"],"properties":{"kst":{"type":"string","title":"Kst"},"utc":{"type":"string","title":"Utc"}}},"num_outcomes":{"type":"integer","title":"Num Outcomes"},"basket_ask_sum":{"anyOf":[{"type":"number"},{"type":"null"}],"title":"Basket Ask Sum","default":null},"basket_bid_sum":{"anyOf":[{"type":"number"},{"type":"null"}],"title":"Basket Bid Sum","default":null},"arbitrage_viable":{"type":"boolean","title":"Arbitrage Viable"},"buy_basket_net_edge_usd":{"anyOf":[{"type":"number"},{"type":"null"}],"title":"Buy Basket Net Edge Usd","default":null},"sell_basket_net_edge_usd":{"anyOf":[{"type":"number"},{"type":"null"}],"title":"Sell Basket Net Edge Usd","default":null},"buy_basket_gross_edge_usd":{"anyOf":[{"type":"number"},{"type":"null"}],"title":"Buy Basket Gross Edge Usd","default":null},"oldest_book_snapshot_time":{"anyOf":[{"type":"object","title":"TimestampPair","required":["utc","kst"],"properties":{"kst":{"type":"string","title":"Kst"},"utc":{"type":"string","title":"Utc"}}},{"type":"null"}],"default":null,"description":"The oldest of each leg's own order-book snapshot timestamp - the staleness bottleneck across all legs, since the whole basket calculation is only as fresh as its stalest leg. Null if no leg reported a timestamp."},"buy_basket_capacity_shares":{"type":"number","title":"Buy Basket Capacity Shares"},"sell_basket_gross_edge_usd":{"anyOf":[{"type":"number"},{"type":"null"}],"title":"Sell Basket Gross Edge Usd","default":null},"assumed_round_trip_cost_pct":{"type":"number","title":"Assumed Round Trip Cost Pct"},"sell_basket_capacity_shares":{"type":"number","title":"Sell Basket Capacity Shares"},"buy_basket_capacity_notional_usd":{"anyOf":[{"type":"number"},{"type":"null"}],"title":"Buy Basket Capacity Notional Usd","default":null},"sell_basket_capacity_notional_usd":{"anyOf":[{"type":"number"},{"type":"null"}],"title":"Sell Basket Capacity Notional Usd","default":null},"buy_basket_capacity_vwap_notional_usd":{"anyOf":[{"type":"number"},{"type":"null"}],"title":"Buy Basket Capacity Vwap Notional Usd","default":null,"description":"Same capacity as buy_basket_capacity_shares, but priced by walking the actual order-book depth (volume-weighted) instead of using each leg's top-of-book price - a more realistic fill cost than buy_basket_capacity_notional_usd. Null if depth data was insufficient."},"sell_basket_capacity_vwap_notional_usd":{"anyOf":[{"type":"number"},{"type":"null"}],"title":"Sell Basket Capacity Vwap Notional Usd","default":null,"description":"VWAP-priced equivalent of sell_basket_capacity_notional_usd - see buy_basket_capacity_vwap_notional_usd."}}}}}}},"responseSchema":null,"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.03","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.03/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.03","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.03","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_zauPzsPs0nAdZQePg9CwZ","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.03","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Detects basket arbitrage opportunities in Polymarket neg-risk (mutually-exclusive, multi-outcome) events by checking whether the sum of all outcome prices deviates from $1, and computes executable liquidity capacity for each direction.","exampleAgentPrompt":"Check the Polymarket event 'us-presidential-election-winner-2024' for neg-risk basket arbitrage — use a max slippage of 1.5%, require at least a 1% net edge, and assume 1.5% round-trip costs.","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Pre-trade arbitrage viability check","prompt":"Before I put on a neg-risk trade on Polymarket's 'who-wins-the-2024-senate' event, check if there's a genuine basket arbitrage opportunity right now — use 1% max slippage and flag only if the net edge is above 1.5%."},{"title":"Real-time liquidity bottleneck sizing","prompt":"For the Polymarket event 'nba-champion-2025', tell me how many shares I can actually execute on the buy-basket side right now with 2% max slippage, and whether the arbitrage is viable after a 1.5% round-trip cost assumption."},{"title":"Automated arbitrage scanner for a known event","prompt":"Scan the Polymarket neg-risk event 'super-bowl-lvix-winner' for any basket price deviation from $1 — I want to know the exact opportunity description, basket ask and bid sums, and the executable capacity on both sides."}],"resultDescription":"Returns a structured response including the basket ask sum and bid sum (summed across all outcomes), an opportunity description string characterizing the arbitrage direction and magnitude, an arbitrage_viable boolean flag, buy and sell basket capacity in shares (the actual liquidity-bottleneck size executable right now given slippage), number of outcomes, assumed round-trip cost, and a timestamp pair in UTC and KST. An optional notice field may include warnings or caveats.","failureModes":["Invalid or non-existent event_slug returns an error or empty result","Event is not a neg-risk (mutually exclusive) market — endpoint is only valid for Polymarket neg-risk events","Polymarket API unavailable or rate-limited — data may be stale or unavailable","No arbitrage opportunity found — arbitrage_viable returns false with near-zero edge","Liquidity too thin — buy/sell basket capacity returns zero or near-zero shares","Payment failure in USDC on Base — request not processed"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you need to detect and size neg-risk basket arbitrage specifically on Polymarket multi-outcome mutually-exclusive events. It is the right choice when you need not just a theoretical price signal but actual executable capacity accounting for order book depth and slippage. Prefer this over generic order book tools because it understands the neg-risk constraint that a full YES basket always settles to exactly $1. Do not use for Kalshi (ToS prohibits this data use) or for binary (two-outcome) markets where neg-risk mechanics do not apply.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-12T00:39:40.887Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"alphapipeline-neg-risk-arbitrage-334a96c9"}