{"uid":"cap_IjVwk7INlxgq_V7lYk1Ad","slug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-3ddaf6b2","name":"Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed","description":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/polymarket-feed)","url":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/polymarket-feed?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"POST","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","required":["topic"],"properties":{"topic":{"type":"string","minLength":1,"description":"Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"object"},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":[],"displayCostAmount":"0.01","displayCostAsset":"USD","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.01/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_zKDimE500ewwjhuXBokaU","protocol":"mpp","methodType":"crypto","chain":"tempo","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.01","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fcd6edb6e08f4c7c32d4f71b54bda02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":"arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-mpp","brandBaseUrl":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI event topic.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the current live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities for 'Will the Fed cut rates before July 2025?' — include volume and whale sentiment if available.","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Election outcome probability check","prompt":"Pull the latest Polymarket odds for who wins the 2026 US midterm elections — I want the implied Yes/No probabilities and how much volume is on each side."},{"title":"Crypto regulatory event tracking","prompt":"What does Polymarket currently show for the probability of a Bitcoin spot ETF being approved this quarter? Give me the live orderbook odds and any whale activity."},{"title":"AI milestone market monitoring","prompt":"Check Polymarket right now for any active markets around GPT-5 or AGI being announced in 2025 — I want the implied probability and current trading volume."}],"resultDescription":"Returns live Polymarket market data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities derived from the orderbook, total trading volume, and whale sentiment indicators. Data reflects real-time or near-real-time market conditions on Polymarket's decentralized prediction platform.","failureModes":["No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null results","Ambiguous topic resolves to multiple markets — may return blended or unrelated odds","Stale orderbook data if Polymarket API is experiencing latency — probabilities may lag real-time","Payment failure via x402 protocol results in 402 response with no data returned","Overly broad topic yields too many markets, diluting the relevance of returned odds"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, political, or AI events from Polymarket's decentralized orderbook — especially when you want implied Yes/No probabilities, volume signals, and whale sentiment in a single call. Prefer this over manual Polymarket UI browsing or generic news search when you need structured, quantified market consensus rather than qualitative analysis.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-23T06:32:08.507Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-28273a6a"}