{"uid":"cap_IdGVIG_IxtHVsoY1CV_nx","slug":"x402-factory-prediction-market-probability-by-slug-ccbe844e","name":"x402-factory Prediction Market Probability (by Slug)","description":"Paid data APIs for AI agents: prediction-market analytics, weather intelligence, weather×market edge signals, and SEC/gov data. Paid endpoints use the x402 protocol (HTTP 402 + USDC on Base): call without payment to receive requirements, retry with an X-PAYMENT header. Machine-readable catalog: /llms.txt. Per-endpoint docs: /docs/{id}.","url":"https://x402-factory.com/v1/probability/%7Bslug%7D?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","properties":{"required":{"type":"string"},"properties":{"type":"string"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"json","example":{"data":{"slug":"fed-rate-cut-2026-09","category":"economics","question":"Will the Fed cut rates at the September 2026 FOMC meeting?","per_venue":[{"venue":"kalshi","implied_p":0.7359,"market_id":"KXFEDRATECUT2026","volume_24h_usd":204455.43,"liquidity_score":0.947},{"venue":"polymarket","implied_p":0.7264,"market_id":"fed-rate-cut-2026-09","volume_24h_usd":249729.17,"liquidity_score":0.98}],"divergence":0.0095,"probability":0.7301,"last_move_1h":-0.001,"resolution_date":"2026-09-16","resolution_criteria_summary":"Resolves YES if the target range upper bound is lowered at the Sep 15–16 meeting."},"meta":{"docs":"https://x402-factory.com/docs/probability.get","sources":["kalshi","polymarket"],"version":"1.0.0","endpoint":"/v1/probability/{slug}","data_mode":"live","freshness":"realtime","request_id":"req_00000000","generated_at":"2026-08-21T03:58:58.101Z"}}},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.02","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.02/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.02","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.02","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_YxFc-VIk_ptyNkpG1Kgme","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.02","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Returns aggregated live probability for a specific prediction market question, pulling real-time data from Kalshi and Polymarket and combining them into a consensus figure.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What's the current consensus probability that the Fed cuts rates at the September 2026 FOMC meeting — pull the live Kalshi and Polymarket numbers for fed-rate-cut-2026-09 and show me how they compare.","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Fed rate decision probability check","prompt":"What are the current odds the Fed cuts rates in September 2026? I want the Kalshi and Polymarket numbers side by side and the overall consensus — use the slug fed-rate-cut-2026-09."},{"title":"Political event market divergence alert","prompt":"Check the prediction market probability for the UK snap election market — slug uk-snap-election-2025 — and tell me if Kalshi and Polymarket are diverging significantly from each other right now."},{"title":"Real-time market monitoring for trading","prompt":"I'm watching the trump-tariff-90-day-2025 prediction market — pull the latest consensus probability, how much it's moved in the last hour, and the 24h volume on each venue so I can decide whether to trade it."}],"resultDescription":"A JSON object containing the consensus probability (0–1), per-venue breakdown (Kalshi and Polymarket) with each venue's implied probability, 24h USD volume, and liquidity score, plus cross-venue divergence, 1-hour price movement, resolution date, and a plain-English resolution criteria summary. Metadata includes data freshness (realtime), sources list, and a unique request ID.","failureModes":["Unknown or misspelled slug returns a 404 or empty data response","HTTP 402 with payment requirements returned if no X-PAYMENT header is supplied — must retry with USDC payment on Base","Market may have resolved or been delisted, returning stale or null probability data","Low liquidity markets may have missing or unreliable per-venue data","Network or upstream venue outage can cause partial data with some venues missing"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you need a real-time, aggregated consensus probability for a specific named prediction market event (identified by a slug), want per-venue comparison between Kalshi and Polymarket, and need volume and liquidity metadata alongside the probability. Prefer this over building your own Kalshi/Polymarket integration when you want a single normalized call that handles multi-venue aggregation and divergence detection automatically.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-09T06:30:07.895Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"x402-factory-prediction-market-probability-by-slug-ccbe844e"}