{"uid":"cap_I9wZmYH_yy2MVTJgVA0Hp","slug":"preflight-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-5ac714c1","name":"Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed","description":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://preflight.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities)","url":"https://preflight.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","required":["topic"],"properties":{"topic":{"type":"string","minLength":1,"description":"Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"object"},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":[],"displayCostAmount":"0.015","displayCostAsset":"USD","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.015/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_D4T2HfgzyvzafptPx-mZP","protocol":"mpp","methodType":"crypto","chain":"tempo","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.015","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fcd6edb6e08f4c7c32d4f71b54bda02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":"preflight.agentdiet.dev","brandSlug":"preflight-agentdiet-dev-mpp","brandBaseUrl":"https://preflight.agentdiet.dev","brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Fetches real-time Polymarket prediction market orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for any macro, crypto, or AI event topic.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the current Polymarket odds and implied probabilities for the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in Q3 2025? Include volume and whale sentiment.","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Macro event probability check","prompt":"What's the live Polymarket implied probability that the US enters a recession by end of 2025? I want the Yes/No odds and any whale sentiment signal."},{"title":"Crypto price prediction market lookup","prompt":"Check Polymarket right now — what are traders implying for the probability that Bitcoin hits $100k before the end of this year? Show me the orderbook sentiment and volume."},{"title":"AI policy event odds","prompt":"What does Polymarket currently say about the odds of a major US AI regulation bill passing in 2025? I need the implied Yes probability and how much volume is behind it."}],"resultDescription":"Returns a structured object containing live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities (as percentages or decimals), total trading volume, and whale sentiment indicators derived from large-order activity on the market.","failureModes":["Topic keyword too vague or ambiguous — returns no matching market or incorrect market","Polymarket has no active market for the queried event — empty or null result","Rate limiting or payment failure (HTTP 402) due to insufficient USDC balance","Network timeout if Polymarket API is temporarily unavailable","Stale data if orderbook has not had recent activity"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for discrete future events — particularly macro, crypto, or AI policy events — where Polymarket has an active trading market. Prefer this over news sentiment APIs when you want financially-staked implied probabilities rather than editorial opinion, and over static forecasting models when you need live, continuously-updated market consensus.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-21T07:48:33.759Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"preflight-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-1f4a176d"}