{"uid":"cap_H50XgKML0bltoLbg22s1t","slug":"shopify-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-c4851ad1","name":"Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed","description":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://shopify-intel.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities)","url":"https://shopify-intel.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","required":["topic"],"properties":{"topic":{"type":"string","minLength":1,"description":"Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"object"},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":[],"displayCostAmount":"0.01","displayCostAsset":"USD","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.01/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_EpP40B3Rd1Z40h087gFmX","protocol":"mpp","methodType":"crypto","chain":"tempo","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.01","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fcd6edb6e08f4c7c32d4f71b54bda02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":"shopify-intel.agentdiet.dev","brandSlug":"shopify-intel-agentdiet-dev-mpp","brandBaseUrl":"https://shopify-intel.agentdiet.dev","brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for macro, crypto, and AI events by topic keyword.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the live Polymarket odds and implied probability right now for the US entering a recession in 2025 — including volume and whale sentiment?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Crypto event probability for trading","prompt":"Pull the current Polymarket odds and Yes/No implied probabilities for a Bitcoin spot ETF approval this quarter — I want to know the volume and what the whales are betting."},{"title":"Election outcome prediction market check","prompt":"What does Polymarket currently show for the probability of the Republican candidate winning the 2026 midterms? Give me the full orderbook sentiment."},{"title":"AI regulation event probability lookup","prompt":"What are the live Polymarket odds that the EU AI Act enforcement causes a major AI model ban in 2025? I need the implied probability and recent trading volume."}],"resultDescription":"Returns a structured object containing live Polymarket prediction market data for the queried topic, including implied Yes/No probabilities (as percentages or decimals), orderbook snapshots, total trading volume, and whale sentiment indicators for matching market questions.","failureModes":["No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null result","Topic string too vague or ambiguous, returning unrelated markets","Polymarket API upstream outage or rate limiting causing stale or failed data fetch","Payment failure via x402 protocol preventing request completion","Malformed topic query (empty string despite minLength:1 constraint)"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, geopolitical, or AI events as reflected by actual money at risk on Polymarket. It is preferable over news sentiment or analyst forecasts when you want market-implied probabilities backed by financial incentives, whale positioning, and live orderbook data. Best suited for agents doing event-driven trading research, risk assessment, or decision support tied to binary outcomes.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-21T12:51:26.780Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"shopify-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-96f131ec"}