{"uid":"cap_H4QmLvLm2l4CvYEGPWAFT","slug":"onchain-risk-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-227026fd","name":"Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed","description":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities)","url":"https://onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"POST","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","required":["topic"],"properties":{"topic":{"type":"string","minLength":1,"description":"Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"object"},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":[],"displayCostAmount":"0.01","displayCostAsset":"USD","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.01/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_1tC3Afk3rzvWRIgoXTmAL","protocol":"mpp","methodType":"crypto","chain":"tempo","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.01","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fcd6edb6e08f4c7c32d4f71b54bda02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":"onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev","brandSlug":"onchain-risk-agentdiet-dev-mpp","brandBaseUrl":"https://onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev","brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Fetches live implied Yes/No probabilities, orderbook data, volume, and whale sentiment from Polymarket for a given event topic or keyword","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the live Polymarket odds and implied probability right now for a US recession happening in 2025 — include volume and whale sentiment if available?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Crypto event probability lookup","prompt":"What does Polymarket currently show for the probability of Ethereum hitting $5,000 before the end of the year? Give me the Yes/No odds and any volume data."},{"title":"Macro policy market odds","prompt":"Can you pull the live Polymarket implied probability for the Fed cutting interest rates at the next FOMC meeting?"},{"title":"AI regulation sentiment check","prompt":"What are the current Polymarket odds that a major US AI regulation bill passes this year? I want to see the implied probability and whale sentiment."}],"resultDescription":"Returns a structured object containing live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment indicators for the matching prediction market event.","failureModes":["Topic keyword matches no active Polymarket market — returns empty or null results","Ambiguous topic matches multiple markets — response may include multiple market entries requiring disambiguation","Polymarket API unavailable or rate-limited — upstream timeout or error response","Payment failure via x402 — 402 response if USDC payment not completed","Malformed or empty topic string — validation error on required field"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates from Polymarket's prediction market for macro, crypto, or AI-related events, especially when you want implied market probabilities (not just news sentiment) and whale-level trading volume signals to inform decision-making or research.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-28T00:32:43.935Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"onchain-risk-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-f374aea4"}