{"uid":"cap_DCvr66wL9Oj22mi-TGWyQ","slug":"hn-pulse-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-implied-25197305","name":"Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed","description":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities)","url":"https://hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","required":["topic"],"properties":{"topic":{"type":"string","minLength":1,"description":"Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"object"},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":[],"displayCostAmount":"0.015","displayCostAsset":"USD","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.015/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_ms6y6pYZhVNf1jVd5ilbe","protocol":"mpp","methodType":"crypto","chain":"tempo","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.015","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fcd6edb6e08f4c7c32d4f71b54bda02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":"hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev","brandSlug":"hn-pulse-agentdiet-dev-mpp","brandBaseUrl":"https://hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev","brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI event topic.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the live Polymarket odds and implied probability right now for the Fed cutting interest rates in Q3 2025 — including volume and whale sentiment?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Crypto price event probability check","prompt":"Check Polymarket right now and tell me the implied Yes/No probability and trading volume for Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by end of 2025."},{"title":"Political election odds monitoring","prompt":"What are the current Polymarket odds for the 2026 US midterm elections flipping the Senate — give me the live probability and any whale sentiment signal."},{"title":"AI milestone market odds lookup","prompt":"Pull the live Polymarket prediction market odds for GPT-5 or a frontier AI model being released before December 2025, including implied probability and volume."}],"resultDescription":"Returns live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes probability, implied No probability, current trading volume, and whale sentiment indicators for the matched prediction market event.","failureModes":["No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null result","Stale or unavailable orderbook data if Polymarket API is temporarily down","Ambiguous topic keyword matching multiple unrelated markets — may return unexpected event","HTTP 402 payment required if x402 micropayment not properly handled","Rate limiting or timeout if the upstream Polymarket feed is slow"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-wisdom probability estimates for macro, crypto, political, or AI events as reflected in actual prediction market trading activity on Polymarket. Prefer this over news sentiment tools when you want market-implied probabilities backed by real money and whale order flow rather than opinion or headlines.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-21T07:25:40.237Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"hn-pulse-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-implied-3dbe38ae"}