{"uid":"cap_D-kZ77SgxsTHLGYOCzTDX","slug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-dad2a25e","name":"Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed","description":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/election-odds)","url":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/election-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","required":["topic"],"properties":{"topic":{"type":"string","minLength":1,"description":"Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"object"},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":[],"displayCostAmount":"0.015","displayCostAsset":"USD","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.015/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_xE68vQTm79VObwjakva3l","protocol":"mpp","methodType":"crypto","chain":"tempo","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.015","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fcd6edb6e08f4c7c32d4f71b54bda02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":"arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-mpp","brandBaseUrl":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI event topic.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities right now for 'Fed rate cut in 2025' — including volume and whale sentiment?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Election odds sentiment check","prompt":"Pull up the live Polymarket odds for the 2026 US midterm elections — I want to see the current implied probabilities and which way whale money is moving."},{"title":"Crypto regulatory event tracking","prompt":"What does Polymarket currently show for the chances of a Bitcoin spot ETF approval in the next 90 days? Give me the Yes/No probabilities and trading volume."},{"title":"Macro recession probability lookup","prompt":"Check Polymarket right now for the implied probability of a US recession in 2025 — I want the orderbook odds and any notable whale sentiment."}],"resultDescription":"Returns live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes probability, implied No probability, current trading volume, and whale sentiment signals for the matching prediction market event.","failureModes":["No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null results","Topic query too vague, matching multiple markets with ambiguous results","Polymarket API or upstream data source temporarily unavailable — 5xx error","Payment not processed correctly via x402 — 402 Payment Required response","Rate limiting if called too frequently without proper payment flow"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, political, or AI events from Polymarket's prediction market — especially when you want implied Yes/No odds, volume signals, and whale sentiment rather than traditional financial data or news sentiment. Prefer this over news APIs when you want a monetarily-backed probability rather than editorial opinion.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-21T07:24:45.727Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-28273a6a"}