{"uid":"cap_Cl9iqZVTtD8eQJySkoD_h","slug":"halowerk-ruin-probability-calculator-c5a00758","name":"HALOWERK Ruin Probability Calculator","description":"Endliche Ruin-Wahrscheinlichkeit. Exakte absorbierende Bernoulli-Rechnung bis zum gelieferten Horizont; konstante Risikoeinheit und ganzzahliges CRV 1–10. Keine unbegrenzte oder universelle Ruinprognose. Alle Zahlen, Kurse und Vorgaben liefert der Aufrufer. Keine eigenen Kursdaten, kein Brokerzugriff, keine Ausführung. Rechenwerkzeug, keine Anlageberatung, keine Empfehlung.","url":"https://handel.halowerk.com/v1/rechner/ruin-probability?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"POST","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","properties":{"trade_count":{"type":"integer","maximum":200,"minimum":1},"payoff_ratio":{"type":"integer","maximum":10,"minimum":1},"win_probability":{"type":"number","maximum":1,"minimum":0},"capital_risk_units":{"type":"integer","maximum":1000,"minimum":1}}},"responseSchema":null,"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.005","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.005/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.005","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.005","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_pj8S8_jx0f-lixIszzx_U","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.005","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Computes the finite ruin probability for a trading strategy using exact absorbing Bernoulli calculations over a bounded horizon, given win probability, payoff ratio, trade count, and capital risk units.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What's my probability of ruin if I take 80 trades with a 52% win rate, a payoff ratio of 2, and I'm risking 50 capital units?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Validating a new scalping strategy","prompt":"I have a scalping strategy with a 48% win rate and a 3:1 payoff ratio. If I run it for 100 trades and I have 200 risk units of capital, what's the probability I'll be ruined before those trades are done?"},{"title":"Comparing conservative vs aggressive risk sizing","prompt":"Can you calculate ruin probability for a 60-trade sequence with a 55% win rate, payoff ratio of 2, and only 30 capital risk units? I want to see if my position sizing is too aggressive."},{"title":"Pre-launch risk check for automated trading bot","prompt":"Before I go live with my trading bot, I want to know: over 150 trades with a 45% win rate, payoff ratio of 4, and 500 capital risk units, what is the exact finite ruin probability?"}],"resultDescription":"Returns the finite ruin probability as a numeric value representing the exact absorbing-state probability computed via Bernoulli calculations — i.e., the probability that the trader will reach ruin (zero capital) within the specified number of trades given the strategy parameters.","failureModes":["Invalid win_probability outside 0–1 range returns validation error","trade_count exceeding 200 or below 1 returns out-of-range error","payoff_ratio outside integer range 1–10 returns validation error","capital_risk_units exceeding 1000 or below 1 returns validation error","Missing required fields returns bad request error","Payment not processed (x402) returns 402 Payment Required"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need an exact, mathematically rigorous finite-horizon ruin probability computed via absorbing Bernoulli methods, rather than approximations or Monte Carlo simulations. Ideal for fixed-risk strategies with integer payoff ratios (1–10) and a defined trade horizon of up to 200 trades. Not suitable if you need ruin probability over an infinite horizon, variable position sizing, real market data integration, or trade execution.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-17T06:44:49.231Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"halowerk-ruin-probability-calculator-c5a00758"}