{"uid":"cap_BueP5bkNn6Ymh8HWWf9Iz","slug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-28273a6a","name":"Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed","description":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/prediction-markets)","url":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/prediction-markets?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","required":["topic"],"properties":{"topic":{"type":"string","minLength":1,"description":"Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"object"},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":[],"displayCostAmount":"0.015","displayCostAsset":"USD","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.015/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_oRaxmzCT2kTNuQzyZn4wY","protocol":"mpp","methodType":"crypto","chain":"tempo","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.015","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fcd6edb6e08f4c7c32d4f71b54bda02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":"arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-mpp","brandBaseUrl":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Fetches live Polymarket orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI event topic.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the current live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities for a Fed rate cut happening before the end of 2025, including volume and whale sentiment?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Crypto event odds research","prompt":"What does Polymarket currently show for the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100k this year — give me the Yes/No implied odds, volume, and any whale activity?"},{"title":"Political prediction market check","prompt":"Pull the live Polymarket orderbook and implied probabilities for whether Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election."},{"title":"AI policy event monitoring","prompt":"What are the current Polymarket odds that a major AI regulation bill passes in the US Congress this year, including sentiment from large traders?"}],"resultDescription":"Returns a JSON object containing live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities, trading volume, and whale/large-trader sentiment signals for matching prediction market events.","failureModes":["No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null results","Topic string too vague to match a specific market — may return multiple or irrelevant markets","Polymarket API or data feed unavailable — upstream timeout or connectivity error","Payment not fulfilled (HTTP 402) — call rejected if x402 micropayment not completed","Rate limiting or quota exceeded on the underlying data provider"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need live, real-time prediction market probabilities and orderbook depth from Polymarket specifically — particularly for macro, crypto, or AI policy events. Prefer this over generic news or sentiment APIs when you want crowd-sourced, financially-backed probability estimates rather than opinion polls or news headlines.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-21T07:26:19.665Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-28273a6a"}