{"uid":"cap_AjG62OyO01XLii8Dvmesi","slug":"preflight-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-0c73dda0","name":"Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed","description":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://preflight.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities)","url":"https://preflight.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","required":["topic"],"properties":{"topic":{"type":"string","minLength":1,"description":"Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"object"},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":[],"displayCostAmount":"0.015","displayCostAsset":"USD","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.015/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_LikRfqDQ_MM2mOU7RPFdW","protocol":"mpp","methodType":"crypto","chain":"tempo","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.015","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fcd6edb6e08f4c7c32d4f71b54bda02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":"preflight.agentdiet.dev","brandSlug":"preflight-agentdiet-dev-mpp","brandBaseUrl":"https://preflight.agentdiet.dev","brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Fetches live Polymarket orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for macro, crypto, and AI prediction market events by topic keyword.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the live Polymarket odds and implied probability right now for Bitcoin reaching $150k by end of 2025 — including volume and whether whales are leaning Yes or No?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Election outcome probability check","prompt":"Pull the current Polymarket odds for the 2026 US midterm elections — I want to see the implied Yes/No probabilities and how much volume is behind them."},{"title":"Crypto price prediction market monitoring","prompt":"What is Polymarket currently pricing in for Ethereum hitting $5,000 this year? Give me the live odds, volume, and any whale sentiment signal."},{"title":"Macro event probability research","prompt":"Check the live Polymarket prediction market for a Federal Reserve rate cut in Q3 2025 — what are traders implying the probability is, and is there significant whale activity?"}],"resultDescription":"Returns live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities (as percentages or decimals), current trading volume, and whale sentiment indicators for matching prediction market events.","failureModes":["No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null results","Stale or delayed data if Polymarket API is experiencing latency","Ambiguous topic matches multiple markets — response may include multiple events","Payment failure via x402 if USDC balance is insufficient — HTTP 402 returned","Network timeout if orderbook fetch is slow during high-volume market events"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, political, or AI events from Polymarket's live orderbook — especially when you want implied probability percentages, volume signals, and whale sentiment rather than news headlines or analyst opinions. Prefer this over general news search when quantitative market-derived probabilities are needed for decision-making or research.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-21T07:48:30.772Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"preflight-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-1f4a176d"}