{"uid":"cap_AYp7EX_grxU8OGuyRCJoO","slug":"workflows-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-1ddecd60","name":"Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed","description":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://workflows.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds)","url":"https://workflows.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"POST","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","required":["topic"],"properties":{"topic":{"type":"string","minLength":1,"description":"Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"object"},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":[],"displayCostAmount":"0.01","displayCostAsset":"USD","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.01/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_iOEcSjQ7KDW_ffxgqgFax","protocol":"mpp","methodType":"crypto","chain":"tempo","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.01","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fcd6edb6e08f4c7c32d4f71b54bda02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":"workflows.agentdiet.dev","brandSlug":"workflows-agentdiet-dev-mpp","brandBaseUrl":"https://workflows.agentdiet.dev","brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI event topic.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities for 'Will the Fed cut rates in 2025?' — also show me volume and whale sentiment on that market.","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Crypto event probability lookup","prompt":"What does Polymarket currently say about the probability of Bitcoin reaching $150k by end of 2025? Show me the Yes/No odds and any whale activity."},{"title":"Geopolitical outcome odds","prompt":"Pull the live Polymarket odds for whether there will be a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine before December 2025, including current volume and sentiment."},{"title":"Macro policy prediction market check","prompt":"What's the implied probability on Polymarket right now that the Fed will cut interest rates at least twice in 2025? I want to see the orderbook sentiment too."}],"resultDescription":"Returns live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes/No probabilities as percentages, total trading volume, and whale sentiment signals indicating large-position trader bias for macro, crypto, geopolitical, and AI-related prediction market events.","failureModes":["Topic keyword matches no active Polymarket markets — returns empty or low-confidence result","Polymarket API upstream outage — service may return 502 or timeout","Ambiguous topic string matching multiple unrelated markets — may return blended or incorrect market data","Payment failure via x402 — returns 402 with payment required details","Rate limiting or quota exceeded — returns 429 or equivalent error"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates and orderbook sentiment from Polymarket specifically, especially for macro events, crypto price milestones, geopolitical outcomes, or AI policy questions. It is preferable over general news or sentiment APIs when you want quantified, financially-backed implied probabilities rather than qualitative sentiment. Best for agents that need live market-based forecasting data rather than static model predictions.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-28T00:34:33.638Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"workflows-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-8cd613ff"}