{"uid":"cap_AD3PMjXyeFsCtzkuQ66PH","slug":"cross-venue-prediction-market-event-fusion-341f351f","name":"Cross-Venue Prediction Market Event Fusion","description":"Cross-venue event fusion: match the SAME event across prediction venues (deterministic fuzzy title match + resolve-date proximity) and return each venue's implied probability, a money-type-weighted consensus, and a forecast-divergence signal (venue disagreement, not a tradeable arbitrage).","url":"https://api.agentstools.dev/prediction/event","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","$schema":"https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema","required":["input"],"properties":{"input":{"type":"object","required":["type","method"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string","const":"http"},"method":{"enum":["GET","HEAD","DELETE"],"type":"string"},"queryParams":{"type":"object","required":[],"properties":{"query":{"type":"string","description":"The event to fuse across venues (free text)"},"venue":{"enum":["polymarket","manifold","metaculus"],"type":"string","description":"Optional venue key for market_id"},"market_id":{"type":"string","description":"Optional venue market id (anchor)"}}}},"additionalProperties":false},"output":{"type":"object","required":["type"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string"},"example":{"type":"object"}}}}},"responseSchema":null,"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.02","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.02/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.02","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.02","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_s5mkXuL2DAiCpZBtbiNni","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.02","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Matches the same event across Polymarket, Manifold, and Metaculus using fuzzy title matching and date proximity, then returns each venue's implied probability, a weighted consensus, and a forecast-divergence signal.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What do Polymarket, Manifold, and Metaculus each say about the probability that the US enters a recession in 2025, and how much do they disagree with each other?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Compare election outcome across venues","prompt":"What are Polymarket, Manifold, and Metaculus each saying about the probability of a Republican winning the 2026 midterms, and is there meaningful disagreement between them?"},{"title":"Consensus forecast for AI milestone","prompt":"Can you pull together a unified probability estimate across all the major prediction markets for whether AGI will be achieved before 2030, and flag if any venue is a big outlier?"},{"title":"Check venue divergence on geopolitical event","prompt":"How much do Polymarket and Metaculus disagree on the chances of a ceasefire in Ukraine by end of this year? Give me each venue's number and the divergence signal."}],"resultDescription":"Returns each prediction venue's implied probability for the matched event, a money-type-weighted consensus probability across venues, and a forecast-divergence signal quantifying how much the venues disagree — along with the matched market titles and resolve dates used for the cross-venue pairing.","failureModes":["No matching event found across any venue — returns empty or null results","Ambiguous query matches unrelated markets — wrong event fused","Only one venue has the event — divergence signal is unavailable","market_id anchor not found on specified venue — fallback to text-only matching","Rate limit or payment failure — 402 or 429 response"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you need a unified view of how multiple prediction markets assess the same event, especially to detect forecast divergence or compute a cross-venue consensus. Prefer this over querying individual venue APIs when you want probabilistic aggregation and disagreement signals in a single call rather than raw market data from one source.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-09-15T01:07:42.863Z","isFirstParty":false}