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football match outcome probabilities (home win, draw, away win, BTTS, over/under 2.5, score matrix) from expected goals (xG) values using an independent Poisson model","exampleAgentPrompt":"Using the independent Poisson model with home xG of 1.8 and away xG of 1.1, calculate the full match probability breakdown — home win, draw, away win, BTTS, over/under 2.5, and a score matrix up to 5 goals, with max goals capped at 10.","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Pre-match betting market analysis","prompt":"I have home xG of 2.1 and away xG of 0.9 for tonight's match — can you run the independent Poisson model and give me the home win, draw, away win probabilities plus whether both teams are likely to score?"},{"title":"Score matrix for fantasy football lineup","prompt":"For a match where the home team is expected to score 1.5 goals and the away team 1.2 goals, give me the full scoreline probability matrix up to 5 goals using the Poisson model so I can see which exact scores are most likely."},{"title":"Over/under 2.5 goals probability check","prompt":"Can you compute the over 2.5 and under 2.5 goals probabilities for a game with home xG of 1.3 and away xG of 1.6, using the independent Poisson method with max goals set to 10?"}],"resultDescription":"Returns a JSON object containing match market probabilities: home_win, draw, away_win (summing to 1), btts_yes/no, over_2.5/under_2.5, and a score_matrix of individual scoreline probabilities (e.g. '1-0': 0.123). Also includes model metadata: model name, method, execution time, truncation mass, score_matrix_mass, verification status, tool version, and a result SHA256 hash for integrity checking.","failureModes":["home_xg or away_xg <= 0 (exclusiveMinimum violated) — returns validation error","max_goals > 15 or score_matrix_max_goals > 15 — returns validation error","Non-numeric xG values — returns schema validation error","Payment not attached or insufficient — returns HTTP 402","Internal computation error — may return error status with job_id for debugging"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need a mathematically rigorous, Poisson-based probability distribution over football match outcomes from expected goals inputs. It is ideal for sports betting analysis, fantasy football, or match modeling pipelines where you need both aggregate markets (home/draw/away, BTTS, over/under) and granular scoreline probabilities in a single call. Prefer it over simpler win-probability APIs when you need the full score matrix or when xG values are your primary input signal.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-22T18:42:26.630Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"football-match-probability-calculator-independent-poisson-model-cdaa706b"}