{"uid":"cap_9VYQRky999-tqNHRfQed-","slug":"oracle-the-undesirables-com-7b5f4f3f","name":"Shroomy Web3 Oracle – NFT/Crypto Floor Price Forecaster","description":"NFT collection floor-price oracle: fetches real-time floors via Alchemy and returns risk-aware price forecasts — current floor, historical volatility, drift, and forecast percentiles. Forecasting uses Merton Jump-Diffusion modeling for this crypto-native asset class. Supports any ERC-721 or ERC-1155 contract on Ethereum mainnet.","url":"https://oracle.the-undesirables.com/api/v1/crypto-oracle","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","$schema":"https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema","required":["input"],"properties":{"input":{"type":"object","required":["type","method"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string","const":"http"},"method":{"enum":["GET","HEAD","DELETE"],"type":"string"},"queryParams":{"type":"object","required":["contract_address"],"properties":{"days":{"type":"integer","description":"Forecast horizon in days"},"network":{"type":"string","description":"The blockchain network, default is eth-mainnet"},"contract_address":{"type":"string","description":"The ERC-721 or ERC-1155 contract address to analyze"}}}},"additionalProperties":false},"output":{"type":"object","required":["type"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string"},"example":{"type":"object","required":["status"],"properties":{"status":{"type":"string"},"forecast":{"type":"object"},"floor_price":{"type":"number"},"model_params":{"type":"object"}}}}}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"json","example":{"status":"ok","forecast":{"50th_percentile":0.52,"95th_percentile":1.1},"floor_price":0.45,"model_params":{"drift_mu":0.1,"diffusion_sigma":0.7,"jump_intensity_lambda":4}}},"example":{"request":{"days":30,"coin_id":"ethereum","network":"eth-mainnet","contract_address":"0xBC4CA0EdA7647A8aB7C2061c2E118A18a936f13D"},"response":{"data":{"days":30,"model":"merton_jump_diffusion","source":"alchemy_merton_oracle","network":"eth-mainnet","contract":"0xBC4CA0EdA7647A8aB7C2061c2E118A18a936f13D","currency":"ETH","simulations":20000,"model_params":{"drift_mu":0.1,"jump_mean_mu_j":-0.08,"diffusion_sigma":0.7,"jump_vol_sigma_j":0.15,"jump_intensity_lambda":4},"risk_metrics":{"VaR_95":6.1007,"CVaR_95":5.4494,"VaR_95_pct":-32.14,"CVaR_95_pct":-39.38},"verifiability":{"round":6210873,"beacon":"drand-league-of-entropy","method":"Monte Carlo seeded from the public drand randomness beacon — the seed is committed publicly each round and cannot be cherry-picked. Re-fetch the round and reproduce.","reproduce":"rng = numpy.random.default_rng(int(randomness, 16)); Z = concat(rng.standard_normal(n_sims//2), -that) for antithetic variates; draw N=rng.poisson(lambda_jump*days/365, n_sims) and J=rng.normal(N*mu_j, sqrt(max(N,1))*sigma_j); apply the terminal Merton/GBM formula.","randomness":"2ac25a2737b56cede44bb4ed5794b990a3d2cf3c06d721b24f406a8785b68728","exact_params":{"mu":0.1,"days":30,"mu_j":-0.08,"model":"merton_jump_diffusion","sigma":0.7,"n_sims":20000,"sigma_j":0.15,"lambda_jump":4,"current_price":8.99},"provably_fair":true,"verify_round_url":"https://api.drand.sh/public/6210873"},"current_floor_price":8.99,"forecast_percentiles":{"5th":6.1007,"25th":7.6494,"50th":8.8875,"75th":10.2773,"95th":12.6101}},"tool":"crypto_oracle","price":"$0.05","status":"ok"}},"exampleRequest":{"days":30,"coin_id":"ethereum","network":"eth-mainnet","contract_address":"0xBC4CA0EdA7647A8aB7C2061c2E118A18a936f13D"},"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.05","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.05/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.05","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.05","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_gEYiIbHoEgLMgOAYjYjss","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.05","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Fetches real-time NFT or crypto floor prices via Alchemy and runs 20,000-iteration Heston stochastic Monte Carlo simulations to produce probabilistic price forecasts across user-specified time horizons.","exampleAgentPrompt":"Run a 30-day Heston Monte Carlo price forecast for the Bored Ape Yacht Club NFT collection (contract 0xBC4CA0EdA7647A8aB7C2061c2E118A18a936f13D) on eth-mainnet and give me the 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile price outcomes.","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Portfolio risk assessment for NFT holdings","prompt":"I'm holding a bunch of Pudgy Penguins and want to understand my downside risk. Can you run a 90-day forecast on the collection floor and show me what the worst 5% of outcomes looks like versus the median?"},{"title":"Smart liquidation timing for collection floor","prompt":"We're thinking about liquidating our CloneX position over the next two weeks. Give me a probabilistic forecast for the floor price so we can figure out the best time window to minimize slippage and lock in fair value."},{"title":"Volatility-adjusted offer strategy for NFT market makers","prompt":"We're setting bid-ask spreads for Art Blocks contracts and need to know the expected price movement and volatility over the next 7 days. Run a Heston simulation so we can calibrate our risk margins properly."}],"resultDescription":"Returns current floor price in ETH, forecast percentile distribution (5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 95th) over the requested time horizon, Heston model parameters used (drift, vol-of-vol, mean reversion, long-term variance), number of simulations run (20,000), network, contract address, and a status field. Priced at $0.05 USDC per call.","failureModes":["Invalid or non-existent contract address returns error","Unsupported network parameter causes failure","Alchemy data unavailable for illiquid NFT collections with no floor price history","Missing required query parameters (days, contract_address, network) returns bad request","Rate limiting or upstream Alchemy API outage causes timeout"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you need institutional-grade probabilistic price forecasting for a specific NFT collection or crypto asset on Ethereum mainnet (or other supported networks), combining live on-chain floor price data with rigorous stochastic volatility modeling. Prefer this over simple price lookups when you need a full distribution of outcomes (percentiles), not just a point estimate. Best for risk management, portfolio analysis, or investment decision support requiring Heston-model-based confidence intervals.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-09-15T12:33:37.582Z","isFirstParty":false}