{"uid":"cap_94gi8L__ktz5y94_TLbfB","slug":"cve-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-834a0d54","name":"Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed","description":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://cve-intel.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds)","url":"https://cve-intel.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","required":["topic"],"properties":{"topic":{"type":"string","minLength":1,"description":"Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"object"},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":[],"displayCostAmount":"0.01","displayCostAsset":"USD","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.01/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_MdAnJ0PtggaO84nJ3_HUJ","protocol":"mpp","methodType":"crypto","chain":"tempo","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.01","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fcd6edb6e08f4c7c32d4f71b54bda02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":"cve-intel.agentdiet.dev","brandSlug":"cve-intel-agentdiet-dev-mpp","brandBaseUrl":"https://cve-intel.agentdiet.dev","brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Fetches live Polymarket orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI prediction market topic.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities right now for 'Will the Fed cut rates in 2025?' — including trading volume and whale sentiment?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Crypto event probability tracking","prompt":"What is the current Polymarket implied probability that Ethereum will flip Bitcoin in market cap this year, and what's the trading volume on that market?"},{"title":"Macro policy odds for investment research","prompt":"Pull the live Polymarket odds for a US recession in 2025 — I want the Yes/No probabilities and any whale sentiment signals."},{"title":"Geopolitical risk assessment","prompt":"What does Polymarket currently show as the odds of a ceasefire deal in the Russia-Ukraine conflict? Give me the implied probabilities and volume."}],"resultDescription":"Returns live Polymarket prediction market data for the queried topic, including implied Yes/No probabilities derived from orderbook prices, trading volume, and whale sentiment indicators for macro, crypto, geopolitical, or AI-related events.","failureModes":["Topic not found on Polymarket — no active market matching the keyword","Ambiguous topic keyword matching multiple markets — may return unexpected results","Stale data if Polymarket API is rate-limited or temporarily unavailable","Payment failure via x402 resulting in 402 response before data is returned","Empty orderbook for low-liquidity or recently closed markets"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates from Polymarket's prediction markets, especially for macro economic events, crypto milestones, AI policy, or geopolitical outcomes. Prefer this over news APIs or sentiment analysis when you want market-implied probabilities backed by actual money and volume data.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-21T07:22:42.060Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"cve-intel-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-831312e1"}