{"uid":"cap_8khr4wGNEyRubJ5Y2KvxL","slug":"polynews-news-8adcef16","name":"polynews.news Election Forecast","description":"Grok-synthesized consensus forecast for candidate/party WINNER election markets (US and international). Blends live Polymarket odds (ground truth) with a polling average Grok synthesizes from multiple sources via web_search; returns per-candidate composites (equal-weight market+poll), the individual polls averaged into each candidate (verifiable), and cited sources. Target a market with a registered 'race' key or any Polymarket election event 'slug'.","url":"https://polynews.news/api/v1/election-forecast","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","$schema":"https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema","required":["input"],"properties":{"input":{"type":"object","required":["type","method"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string","const":"http"},"method":{"enum":["GET"],"type":"string"},"queryParams":{"type":"object","properties":{"race":{"type":"string"}}}},"additionalProperties":false},"output":{"type":"object","required":["type"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string"},"example":{"type":"object","properties":{"data":{"type":"object","properties":{"race":{"type":"string"},"sources":{"type":"array"},"summary":{"type":"string"},"weights":{"type":"object","properties":{"poll":{"type":"number"},"market":{"type":"number"}}},"sentiment":{"type":"string"},"candidates":{"type":"array","items":{"type":"object","properties":{"name":{"type":"string"},"polls":{"type":"array","items":{"type":"object","properties":{"url":{"type":"string"},"date":{"type":"string"},"value":{"type":"number","description":"This candidate's implied probability/share in this poll, 0-1"},"pollster":{"type":"string"}}},"description":"Individual polls averaged into components.poll (poll == mean of values). Empty/absent when Grok found no specific polls."},"composite":{"type":"number","description":"Blended probability 0-1 (equal-weight mean of market + poll)"},"components":{"type":"object","properties":{"poll":{"type":"number"},"market":{"type":"number"}}}}}},"lastUpdated":{"type":"string"}}}}}}}}},"responseSchema":null,"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.06","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"settled","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.06/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.06","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.06","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_X-eILuVuFTrOCR3SPSXOF","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.06","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Returns a blended election forecast combining prediction market prices and poll averages for a specified race, with per-candidate probabilities and cited sources.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What's the latest consensus election forecast for the 2024 US presidential race — blending prediction market prices and poll averages per candidate, with sources I can verify?","exampleUseCases":null,"resultDescription":"Returns a structured JSON object with per-candidate composite probabilities (equal-weight blend of market and poll), individual poll data with pollster names and URLs, market-implied probabilities, an overall sentiment label, a natural language summary, data weights used, and a last-updated timestamp.","failureModes":["Unknown or malformed race identifier returns empty or error response","No polls found for a given race — polls array may be empty/absent, composite relies solely on market","Market data unavailable — composite may fall back to polls only","Rate limit or payment failure returns 402 or 429 HTTP error","Race not yet tracked by the service returns null or empty data"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you need a cited, verifiable election forecast that blends both prediction market prices and poll averages into a single consensus probability per candidate. Prefer it over raw market feeds when you want traceable poll sources and over raw poll aggregators when you also want market signal. Ideal for political analysis agents, election dashboards, or any workflow that needs a defensible, blended probability with attribution.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-09-16T06:38:58.196Z","isFirstParty":false}