{"uid":"cap_8fEWdScXKHpRY244KOFjQ","slug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-0382cee4","name":"Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed","description":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/market-odds)","url":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/market-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","required":["topic"],"properties":{"topic":{"type":"string","minLength":1,"description":"Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"object"},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":[],"displayCostAmount":"0.015","displayCostAsset":"USD","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.015/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_WbOy0BtATAe8eaOK-nBQZ","protocol":"mpp","methodType":"crypto","chain":"tempo","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.015","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fcd6edb6e08f4c7c32d4f71b54bda02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":"arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-mpp","brandBaseUrl":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Fetches live Polymarket orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for any macro, crypto, or AI prediction market topic.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probability right now for Bitcoin hitting $150k by end of 2025 — and is there any notable whale activity on that market?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Crypto price prediction market check","prompt":"Pull the current Polymarket odds on Ethereum hitting $5,000 before December — I want the implied Yes probability and how much volume is on that market."},{"title":"Macro event probability lookup","prompt":"What's Polymarket currently pricing in for a US Federal Reserve rate cut at the next FOMC meeting? Give me the implied probability and any whale sentiment signals."},{"title":"AI milestone market odds","prompt":"Check Polymarket for the latest odds on GPT-5 or a major frontier AI model being released before June 2025 — what's the implied Yes probability and orderbook look like?"}],"resultDescription":"Returns live Polymarket orderbook data including implied Yes and No probabilities (as percentages or decimals), total trading volume, and whale sentiment indicators for the queried prediction market topic or event keyword.","failureModes":["No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic — returns empty or null result","Ambiguous topic keyword matches multiple markets — may return aggregated or top-ranked result","Stale or delayed data if Polymarket API is temporarily unavailable","Payment failure via x402 protocol if USDC balance is insufficient","Rate limiting if the endpoint is called too frequently"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, political, or AI events as priced by Polymarket traders. Prefer this over general news or sentiment APIs when you want financially-backed implied probabilities and orderbook depth rather than social media sentiment. Best suited for agents performing market analysis, event-driven trading research, or probabilistic forecasting on discrete binary outcomes.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-21T07:25:32.627Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-28273a6a"}