{"uid":"cap_8KwUq_mgfDrFhgd8sM8dI","slug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-7b9dd232","name":"Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed","description":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/crypto-betting-odds)","url":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/crypto-betting-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","required":["topic"],"properties":{"topic":{"type":"string","minLength":1,"description":"Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"object"},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":[],"displayCostAmount":"0.015","displayCostAsset":"USD","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.015/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_W_bVWnxDGPwcrgs3vJJx4","protocol":"mpp","methodType":"crypto","chain":"tempo","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.015","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fcd6edb6e08f4c7c32d4f71b54bda02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":"arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-mpp","brandBaseUrl":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro/crypto/AI event topic.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities for 'Bitcoin hitting $100k by end of 2025', including current volume and whale sentiment?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Crypto event probability check","prompt":"Pull the current Polymarket odds for 'Ethereum ETF approval in 2025' — I want to see the implied Yes probability, trading volume, and whether whales are leaning Yes or No."},{"title":"Macro Fed rate cut odds","prompt":"What is Polymarket currently pricing in for a Fed rate cut in July 2025? Give me the live Yes/No probabilities and any orderbook sentiment signals."},{"title":"AI regulation prediction market","prompt":"Check Polymarket for any active markets around AI regulation or the EU AI Act passing in 2025 — I want the implied odds and how much volume is behind them."}],"resultDescription":"Returns a structured object containing live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities, 24h trading volume, and whale sentiment indicators for matching prediction market events.","failureModes":["No matching Polymarket market found for the queried topic — returns empty or null market data","Topic query too vague, returning multiple unrelated markets with ambiguous aggregation","Polymarket API or orderbook data temporarily unavailable, causing stale or missing odds","Payment not fulfilled (HTTP 402) — endpoint requires $0.015 USDC per call via x402","Network timeout if Polymarket orderbook fetch is slow during high-volume events"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need live, crowd-sourced probability estimates from Polymarket specifically — particularly for crypto, macro, or AI events — rather than static news sentiment or analyst forecasts. It is especially useful when you want whale-weighted orderbook sentiment alongside raw Yes/No implied probabilities. Prefer this over general news APIs when you need a market-derived probability signal rather than qualitative opinion.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-21T07:23:44.107Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-28273a6a"}