{"uid":"cap_8FyKiQ7dGCwwKMX8lrRQe","slug":"hn-pulse-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-implied-06e62104","name":"Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed","description":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds)","url":"https://hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","required":["topic"],"properties":{"topic":{"type":"string","minLength":1,"description":"Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"object"},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":[],"displayCostAmount":"0.015","displayCostAsset":"USD","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.015/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_jmiW-LTkWNh1PLwESyoYH","protocol":"mpp","methodType":"crypto","chain":"tempo","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.015","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fcd6edb6e08f4c7c32d4f71b54bda02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":"hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev","brandSlug":"hn-pulse-agentdiet-dev-mpp","brandBaseUrl":"https://hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev","brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for a given event keyword or question.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the current Polymarket odds on the Fed cutting interest rates before the end of the year — give me the implied Yes/No probabilities and any whale sentiment signals.","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Crypto event probability check","prompt":"What does Polymarket currently show as the implied probability of Bitcoin reaching $150k by end of year? I want the Yes/No odds and volume data."},{"title":"Election outcome market odds","prompt":"Pull the latest Polymarket prediction market odds for who wins the next US presidential election — I want implied probabilities and whale sentiment."},{"title":"AI regulation prediction market","prompt":"What are live Polymarket odds on a major US AI regulation bill passing this year? Give me the current orderbook probabilities and trading volume."}],"resultDescription":"Returns live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities (as percentages or decimals), market trading volume, and whale sentiment signals for relevant prediction market events matching the query.","failureModes":["No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic — returns empty or null result","Topic string too vague, returning multiple unrelated markets","Polymarket API downstream outage causing stale or failed data fetch","Payment required (HTTP 402) if x402 micropayment not fulfilled","Rate limiting if called too frequently without proper payment headers"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates from an active prediction market (Polymarket) rather than news sentiment or analyst forecasts. It is ideal for macro, crypto, geopolitical, and AI event probability queries where market-implied odds and trader positioning (whale sentiment, volume) are more informative than raw news data.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-21T07:23:22.849Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"hn-pulse-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-implied-3dbe38ae"}