{"uid":"cap_8Cu9onbZPZGIekGqksK4O","slug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-a343de53","name":"Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed","description":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/crypto-betting-odds)","url":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/crypto-betting-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"POST","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","required":["topic"],"properties":{"topic":{"type":"string","minLength":1,"description":"Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"object"},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":[],"displayCostAmount":"0.01","displayCostAsset":"USD","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.01/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_eMmPj9Rd7gcwphqcqaPD3","protocol":"mpp","methodType":"crypto","chain":"tempo","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.01","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fcd6edb6e08f4c7c32d4f71b54bda02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":"arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-mpp","brandBaseUrl":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro, crypto, and AI events.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the current Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities for a Bitcoin price above $100k by end of 2025, including volume and whale sentiment?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Election outcome probability tracking","prompt":"What does Polymarket currently show as the implied probability for the Republican candidate winning the 2026 midterms — give me the Yes/No odds and current trading volume."},{"title":"Crypto regulatory event monitoring","prompt":"Pull the live Polymarket odds for a US spot Bitcoin ETF approval this quarter — I want the implied probabilities, orderbook depth, and what whales are betting on."},{"title":"Macro Fed policy sentiment check","prompt":"What are traders on Polymarket saying about a Fed interest rate cut in Q1 2025? Give me the current Yes/No implied probabilities and volume."}],"resultDescription":"Returns live Polymarket prediction market data including implied Yes/No probabilities derived from orderbook prices, 24-hour trading volume, whale sentiment signals, and market metadata for the queried event or topic.","failureModes":["No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic — returns empty or null results","Ambiguous topic keyword matching multiple markets — may return mixed or unexpected markets","Stale data if Polymarket API is temporarily rate-limited or unavailable","Payment failure via x402 if USDC balance is insufficient, resulting in 402 response","Overly broad topic keyword returning unrelated prediction markets"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need live, real-time Polymarket prediction market probabilities and crowd-sourced event odds for macro, crypto, or AI-related events. Prefer this over general web search when you want structured probability data (Yes/No implied odds), orderbook depth, volume, and whale sentiment rather than news articles or opinion. Best used for quantitative event probability lookups, not for price feeds or exchange order execution.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-28T00:31:23.580Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-28273a6a"}