{"uid":"cap_8BIU81-rMz7N9zQ8j07c9","slug":"delx-commerce-multi-outcome-kelly-criterion-calculator-6879be35","name":"Delx Commerce Multi-Outcome Kelly Criterion Calculator","description":"Pay-per-result APIs for agents. No signup. Exact price. Verifiable delivery. USDC on Base + Solana via x402.","url":"https://commerce.delx.ai/api/v1/x402/multi-outcome-kelly?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"POST","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","properties":{"probs":{"type":"array","description":"Outcome probabilities (same order as prices)"},"prices":{"type":"array","description":"Market prices / samples depending on tool"},"bankroll":{"type":"number","description":"Bankroll in quote units"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"json","example":{"schema":"delx/util-multi-outcome-kelly/v1","stakes":[0,100,0],"fractions":[0,1,0]}},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.001","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.001/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.001","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.001","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_4w9rMQp3eosmOikpBKPc5","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.001","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Computes optimal bet stakes and fractions across multiple outcomes using the Kelly Criterion given outcome probabilities, market prices, and a bankroll size.","exampleAgentPrompt":"I have a bankroll of 1000 USDC and three outcomes with probabilities [0.6, 0.3, 0.1] and market prices [1.5, 3.0, 9.0] — calculate the optimal Kelly stakes and fractions I should bet on each outcome.","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Sports betting bankroll allocation","prompt":"I'm betting on a three-way soccer match outcome. My bankroll is 500 USDC, the probabilities I estimate are [0.5, 0.3, 0.2] and the market odds imply prices of [2.1, 3.5, 5.0]. What are the optimal Kelly stakes for each outcome?"},{"title":"Prediction market portfolio sizing","prompt":"I'm participating in a prediction market with four possible outcomes. My bankroll is 2000 USDC, my probability estimates are [0.45, 0.25, 0.20, 0.10], and the current market prices are [1.8, 3.2, 4.5, 8.0]. How much should I allocate to each outcome using Kelly?"},{"title":"Crypto event bet sizing","prompt":"I want to size bets on three possible price scenarios for ETH next month. My bankroll is 300 USDC, I believe probabilities are [0.55, 0.30, 0.15] and the market prices are [1.6, 2.8, 6.0]. Give me the optimal Kelly fractions and dollar stakes."}],"resultDescription":"Returns a JSON object with the schema identifier 'delx/util-multi-outcome-kelly/v1', an array of 'stakes' (dollar amounts to bet on each outcome in bankroll units) and an array of 'fractions' (proportion of bankroll to allocate to each outcome), both ordered to match the input arrays.","failureModes":["Probabilities that do not sum to 1 may produce unexpected or invalid fractions","Negative or zero prices may cause computation errors","Bankroll of zero returns zero stakes for all outcomes","Mismatched array lengths between probs and prices will likely cause a 400 error","Market prices implying negative expected value may result in all-zero stakes (no bet recommended)"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you need mathematically optimal multi-outcome Kelly Criterion stake sizing in a single API call without requiring signup or subscription — especially useful for AI agents operating autonomously in prediction markets, sports betting, or portfolio allocation contexts where pay-per-call USDC micropayment via x402 is acceptable and verifiable delivery is required.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-01T00:53:57.454Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"delx-commerce-multi-outcome-kelly-criterion-calculator-6879be35"}