{"uid":"cap_85D5xfq7aRjjE-D9fgFyD","slug":"preflight-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-83672cd3","name":"Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed","description":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://preflight.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds)","url":"https://preflight.agentdiet.dev/v1/geopolitical-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","required":["topic"],"properties":{"topic":{"type":"string","minLength":1,"description":"Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"object"},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":[],"displayCostAmount":"0.01","displayCostAsset":"USD","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.015/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_q1_ObF5awxURZNPe17SWe","protocol":"mpp","methodType":"crypto","chain":"tempo","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.015","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fcd6edb6e08f4c7c32d4f71b54bda02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":"preflight.agentdiet.dev","brandSlug":"preflight-agentdiet-dev-mpp","brandBaseUrl":"https://preflight.agentdiet.dev","brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Fetches live Polymarket orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI event topic","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the current Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities for the Fed cutting interest rates in Q3, including volume and whale sentiment?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Election outcome probability check","prompt":"Pull the live Polymarket odds on who wins the 2024 US presidential election — I want the implied Yes/No probabilities and current trading volume."},{"title":"Crypto ETF approval betting sentiment","prompt":"What are traders on Polymarket currently pricing in for a spot Ethereum ETF approval this year? Show me the implied probability and any whale sentiment signals."},{"title":"Geopolitical ceasefire market odds","prompt":"Check Polymarket for the current implied probability of a ceasefire deal being reached in the Russia-Ukraine conflict before the end of the year, along with volume data."}],"resultDescription":"Returns live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes/No probabilities (as percentages or decimals), current trading volume, and whale sentiment indicators — giving a crowd-sourced probability snapshot for the specified event or question.","failureModes":["No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null results","Ambiguous topic matches multiple markets — response may return multiple or unexpected markets","Polymarket API downtime or rate limiting causing stale or missing data","Payment failure via x402 protocol resulting in 402 response and no data returned","Topic string too vague to resolve a specific market, leading to low-confidence or mismatched results"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, geopolitical, or AI events sourced directly from Polymarket's live orderbooks. Prefer it over news APIs or LLM-generated forecasts when you want market-implied probabilities backed by actual money, volume data, and whale activity. Best used for financial agents, political forecasting bots, or risk assessment workflows that require live, tradeable probability signals rather than static analyst opinions.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-21T12:47:12.575Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"preflight-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-1f4a176d"}