{"uid":"cap_5OdyJNtMN1U8R2bhWbfEB","slug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-6ef2972a","name":"Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed","description":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/polymarket-feed)","url":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/polymarket-feed?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","required":["topic"],"properties":{"topic":{"type":"string","minLength":1,"description":"Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"object"},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":[],"displayCostAmount":"0.015","displayCostAsset":"USD","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.015/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_AU6j7_ka_r2xU-ucyhkU-","protocol":"mpp","methodType":"crypto","chain":"tempo","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.015","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fcd6edb6e08f4c7c32d4f71b54bda02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":"arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-mpp","brandBaseUrl":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for a given topic or event keyword","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the live Polymarket odds and implied probability for 'Will the Fed cut rates in 2025' — including current volume and whale sentiment?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Crypto event probability check","prompt":"Pull the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probability for Bitcoin hitting $150k before the end of 2025, and tell me what the whale sentiment looks like right now."},{"title":"Macro policy prediction market lookup","prompt":"What does Polymarket currently say about the probability of a US recession in 2025? Give me the implied odds, volume, and any notable orderbook signals."},{"title":"AI milestone market sentiment","prompt":"Check the live Polymarket prediction market for GPT-5 or the next major OpenAI release — what are the current Yes/No probabilities and trading volume?"}],"resultDescription":"Returns live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities, total market volume, and whale sentiment indicators for macro, crypto, and AI-related prediction market events.","failureModes":["Topic keyword returns no matching Polymarket market — endpoint may return empty results or an error if no active market exists for the query","Stale or delayed data if Polymarket API is experiencing latency or downtime","Ambiguous topic keyword matches multiple markets, returning aggregated or unexpected results","Payment failure via x402 if USDC balance is insufficient","Rate limiting or HTTP 402 if payment is not processed correctly"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, or AI events from Polymarket's live orderbooks. Prefer this over news sentiment or analyst forecasts when you want market-implied probabilities and volume-weighted signals including whale activity. Best suited for agents that need to incorporate prediction market data into financial analysis, research, or decision-making workflows.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-21T07:22:16.809Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-28273a6a"}