{"uid":"cap_4qPJaToulhlxO5ECp429u","slug":"hn-pulse-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-implied-853dbfd9","name":"Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed","description":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev/v1/polymarket-alpha)","url":"https://hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev/v1/polymarket-alpha?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","required":["topic"],"properties":{"topic":{"type":"string","minLength":1,"description":"Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"object"},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":[],"displayCostAmount":"0.015","displayCostAsset":"USD","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.015/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_TuxlUcHr6wCLI63ekjaVc","protocol":"mpp","methodType":"crypto","chain":"tempo","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.015","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fcd6edb6e08f4c7c32d4f71b54bda02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":"hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev","brandSlug":"hn-pulse-agentdiet-dev-mpp","brandBaseUrl":"https://hn-pulse.agentdiet.dev","brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI event topic.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities right now for 'Bitcoin hitting $100k by end of year' — including volume and whale sentiment?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Crypto event probability check","prompt":"What's the current Polymarket implied probability that the SEC approves a spot Ethereum ETF this quarter? Show me the Yes/No odds and any notable whale activity."},{"title":"Macro recession risk monitor","prompt":"Pull the live Polymarket odds on a US recession happening in 2025 — I want the implied probabilities and recent trading volume so I can size my portfolio hedge."},{"title":"AI milestone prediction tracking","prompt":"What does Polymarket currently say about the probability of AGI being declared by a major lab before 2026? Give me the orderbook odds and whale sentiment."}],"resultDescription":"Returns live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities (as percentages or decimals), current trading volume, and whale sentiment signals indicating large-position holder bias for the matched prediction market event.","failureModes":["No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null result","Stale or delayed data if Polymarket API is experiencing downtime","Ambiguous topic string matching multiple markets — may return the most liquid or recent match","HTTP 402 payment required if x402 payment header is missing or insufficient","Rate limiting or quota exhaustion if called at high frequency"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need real-time, crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, or AI events sourced directly from Polymarket's live orderbooks — especially when you want implied probabilities with volume and whale sentiment context rather than just news sentiment or analyst forecasts. Prefer this over general news APIs or sentiment tools when the user explicitly wants prediction market odds or crowd-wisdom probability for a binary outcome event.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-21T07:22:45.024Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"hn-pulse-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-implied-3dbe38ae"}