{"uid":"cap_4lk0mri4BgsHXB-QwfkL_","slug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-d3a01969","name":"Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed","description":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/polymarket-live-odds-feed)","url":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/polymarket-live-odds-feed?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","required":["topic"],"properties":{"topic":{"type":"string","minLength":1,"description":"Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"object"},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":[],"displayCostAmount":"0.015","displayCostAsset":"USD","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.015/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_sUl0w1-oC-EiKEZo-aJm_","protocol":"mpp","methodType":"crypto","chain":"tempo","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.015","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fcd6edb6e08f4c7c32d4f71b54bda02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":"arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-mpp","brandBaseUrl":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI event topic","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the live Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities for Bitcoin reaching $150k by end of 2025 — and is there any notable whale sentiment on it?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Crypto price prediction market check","prompt":"Pull the live Polymarket odds and implied probabilities for Ethereum hitting $10k this year — I want the current Yes/No percentages and the trading volume."},{"title":"Macro event probability lookup","prompt":"What does Polymarket currently show for the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates at the next FOMC meeting? I want the orderbook-implied odds and any whale activity."},{"title":"AI milestone market sentiment","prompt":"Check the live Polymarket odds for GPT-5 being released before the end of this quarter — give me the implied probability and current market volume."}],"resultDescription":"Returns live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes/No probabilities as percentages, 24h trading volume, market liquidity, and whale sentiment signals for the relevant prediction market event.","failureModes":["No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic — returns empty or null result","Topic too vague or ambiguous to resolve to a specific market — may return multiple unrelated markets or no match","Polymarket API or upstream data unavailable — returns upstream connectivity error","Market has closed or resolved — returns historical data or error indicating market is no longer live","Rate limiting or payment failure — HTTP 402 returned if payment not processed correctly"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, or AI events, specifically sourced from Polymarket's prediction market orderbooks. Prefer this over news sentiment APIs when you want financial-market-grade implied probabilities with volume and whale activity context, rather than qualitative sentiment. Best for agents that need to ground forecasts or decisions in actual money-backed market odds.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-21T07:23:11.876Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-28273a6a"}