{"uid":"cap_4eg-e6OZEG8sVWGpCZWHd","slug":"polls-karbach-digital-german-constituency-election-results-simulation-4a4dbe24","name":"polls.karbach.digital — German Constituency Election Results & Simulation","description":"Unabhängige Wahlsimulation für 18 deutsche Wahlen. Monte-Carlo-Modell mit 10.000 Szenarien pro Wahl, kalibriert und intern validiert an 34 historischen Wahlen (Leave-One-Out, MAE ±1.27 Pp). Alle 6 Stunden aktualisiert.","url":"https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/constituencies/%7Bnr%7D/results?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","properties":{"properties":{"type":"string"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"json","example":{"data":{"name":"Homburg","history":{"btw2013":{"erst_pct":{"AfD":4.64,"CDU":39.77,"FDP":1.36,"NPD":1.61,"SPD":37.62,"Linke":9.06,"GRÜNE":3.57,"PIRATEN":2.37},"waehlende":142644,"zweit_pct":{"FW":0.67,"AfD":5.6,"CDU":36.59,"FDP":3.79,"NPD":1.75,"SPD":31.89,"MLPD":0.05,"Linke":10.19,"GRÜNE":5.12,"FAMILIE":1.71,"PIRATEN":2.48,"pro Deutschland":0.16},"wahlberechtigt":198117,"gewaehlt_partei":null,"wahlbeteiligung_pct":72},"btw2017":{"erst_pct":{"FW":1.24,"AfD":11,"CDU":33.56,"FDP":5.14,"SPD":31.41,"Linke":10.97,"Grüne":4.97,"Marxistisch-Leninistische Partei Deutschlands":0.15,"Partei für Arbeit, Rechtsstaat, Tierschutz, Elitenförderung und basisdemokratische Initiative":1.54},"waehlende":145992,"zweit_pct":{"FW":0.89,"AfD":11.67,"CDU":31.03,"FDP":7.73,"SPD":27.68,"Linke":12.38,"Grüne":5.65,"Deutsche Mitte":0.18,"Partei der Vernunft":0.08,"Bündnis Grundeinkommen":0.15,"Piratenpartei Deutschland":0.45,"Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschlands":0.54,"Marxistisch-Leninistische Partei Deutschlands":0.08,"Partei für Arbeit, Rechtsstaat, Tierschutz, Elitenförderung und basisdemokratische Initiative":1.23},"wahlberechtigt":192410,"gewaehlt_partei":null,"wahlbeteiligung_pct":75.88},"btw2021":{"erst_pct":{"FW":3.16,"AfD":11.61,"CDU":26.12,"FDP":7.89,"SPD":36.59,"Linke":5.24,"Grüne":4.89,"Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei":0.64,"Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland":1.49,"Partei für Arbeit, Rechtsstaat, Tierschutz, Elitenförderung und basisdemokratische Initiative":2.35},"waehlende":142288,"zweit_pct":{"FW":2.4,"AfD":11.49,"CDU":22.88,"FDP":11.24,"SPD":37.24,"Linke":6.61,"Piratenpartei Deutschland":0.58,"PARTEI MENSCH UMWELT TIERSCHUTZ":2.89,"Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei":0.46,"Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland":1.34,"Marxistisch-Leninistische Partei Deutschlands":0.06,"Team Todenhöfer – Die Gerechtigkeitspartei":0.38,"Die Heimat (2021: Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschlands)":0.26,"Partei für Arbeit, Rechtsstaat, Tierschutz, Elitenförderung und basisdemokratische Initiative":1.57},"wahlberechtigt":185941,"gewaehlt_partei":null,"wahlbeteiligung_pct":76.52},"btw2025":{"erst_pct":{"FW":3.83,"AfD":23.35,"CDU":28.02,"FDP":3.21,"SPD":30.52,"Linke":6.64,"Grüne":4.44},"waehlende":147979,"zweit_pct":{"FW":1.71,"AfD":23.73,"BSW":5.77,"CDU":26.05,"FDP":4.24,"SPD":22.04,"Linke":6.69,"Grüne":6.59,"Volt Deutschland":0.55,"BÜNDNIS DEUTSCHLAND":0.25,"Piratenpartei Deutschland":0.28,"PARTEI MENSCH UMWELT TIERSCHUTZ":2.06,"Marxistisch-Leninistische Partei Deutschlands":0.05},"wahlberechtigt":180479,"gewaehlt_partei":"Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands","wahlbeteiligung_pct":81.99}},"constituency":299,"results_by_year":{"2017":{"wk_nr":299,"gebiet":"Homburg","turnout":72,"waehlende":142644,"zweit_pct":{"FW":0.27,"AfD":0.56,"CDU":32.02,"FDP":7.98,"SPD":28.56,"Linke":12.78,"Grüne":5.83},"bundesland_id":"10","gueltige_zweit":139102,"wahlberechtigte":198117},"2021":{"wk_nr":299,"gebiet":"Homburg","turnout":75.88,"waehlende":145992,"zweit_pct":{"FW":1.31,"AfD":11.2,"CDU":22.3,"FDP":10.95,"SPD":36.29,"SSW":0.59,"Linke":6.44},"bundesland_id":"10","gueltige_zweit":143525,"wahlberechtigte":192410},"2025":{"wk_nr":299,"gebiet":"Homburg","turnout":81.99,"waehlende":147979,"zweit_pct":{"FW":0.55,"AfD":23.73,"BSW":5.77,"CDU":26.05,"FDP":4.24,"SPD":22.04,"SSW":0.25,"Linke":6.69,"Grüne":6.59},"bundesland_id":"10","gueltige_zweit":146668,"wahlberechtigte":180479}}},"docs":"https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/","model":null,"notice":"Scenario analysis based on published opinion polls. Not a prediction and not a voting recommendation. Coalitions are arithmetic majorities only, not statemen...","source":{"polls":"dawum.de","processing":"polls.karbach.digital (Max Karbach)","polls_license":"ODbL 1.0","official_results":"Die Bundeswahlleiterin, Wiesbaden","polls_license_url":"https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/","official_results_license":"Datenlizenz Deutschland Namensnennung 2.0"},"project":"Ein Projekt von Karbach.Digital (https://karbach.digital)","updated_at":"2026-10-01T07:00:01.779851","uncertainty":null}},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.02","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"registry","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.02/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.02","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.02","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_DpmCdlo3QQ3xog39ULzSu","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.02","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":null,"unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Returns historical election results and Monte-Carlo simulation forecasts for a specific German Bundestag constituency by number, including party vote shares and turnout across past elections.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What were the historical election results and the current simulation forecast for German Bundestag constituency number 235 — show me party vote shares for both Erststimme and Zweitstimme across past elections?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Researching swing constituency voting trends","prompt":"Pull up the full election history for Bundestag constituency 196 — I want to see how the vote shares for SPD, CDU, and AfD changed from 2013 to 2021, including turnout each year."},{"title":"Election forecast for a specific district","prompt":"What does the Monte-Carlo simulation say about constituency 61 for the next German federal election? I want to know which parties are most likely to win and what the probability spread looks like."},{"title":"Comparing Erststimme vs Zweitstimme in a district","prompt":"For German Wahlkreis number 145, can you show me how voters split between their direct candidate vote and their party list vote in the 2021 federal election?"}],"resultDescription":"A JSON object containing the constituency name, and a history object keyed by election year (e.g. btw2013, btw2017, btw2021) each containing: Erststimme percentage breakdown by party, Zweitstimme percentage breakdown by party, total eligible voters (wahlberechtigt), total votes cast (waehlende), voter turnout percentage (wahlbeteiligung_pct), and the winning party (gewaehlt_partei). May also include Monte-Carlo simulation output for upcoming elections.","failureModes":["Invalid or out-of-range constituency number returns an error or empty result","Constituency number passed as string instead of integer may be rejected","Endpoint returns stale data if updated less than 6 hours ago (normal refresh cycle)","Some historical elections may have incomplete party data for smaller parties","Network or payment authentication failure (x402 protocol) prevents access"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you need granular, constituency-level German Bundestag election data — both historical vote shares and simulation-based forecasts. Prefer it over national-level polling aggregators when the user wants district-specific (Wahlkreis) analysis, ticket-splitting behavior, or local party strength. Distinct from the sibling endpoint returning nationwide seat projections or state-level Landtag data.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-28T12:38:19.034Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"polls-karbach-digital-german-constituency-election-results-simulation-4a4dbe24"}