{"uid":"cap_4M0ZBOmsCJIpwgZmwJA8c","slug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-40f01089","name":"Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed","description":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/fomc-rate-odds)","url":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev/v1/fomc-rate-odds?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","required":["topic"],"properties":{"topic":{"type":"string","minLength":1,"description":"Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"object"},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":[],"displayCostAmount":"0.015","displayCostAsset":"USD","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.015/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.015","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_LFj-hTqIZb8Kj6OfXqWj7","protocol":"mpp","methodType":"crypto","chain":"tempo","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.015","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fcd6edb6e08f4c7c32d4f71b54bda02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":"arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-mpp","brandBaseUrl":"https://arxiv-digest.agentdiet.dev","brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Fetches live Polymarket orderbook data, implied Yes/No probabilities, trading volume, and whale sentiment for a given macro, crypto, or AI prediction market topic.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the current Polymarket odds and implied Yes/No probabilities for a Fed rate cut at the next FOMC meeting — include volume and whale sentiment?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"FOMC rate decision probability check","prompt":"Pull the live Polymarket odds for the next FOMC meeting — I want to see the implied probability of a rate cut versus a hold, plus any whale positioning."},{"title":"Crypto regulatory event sentiment","prompt":"What does Polymarket currently show for the odds of a spot Ethereum ETF approval this year? Give me the yes/no probabilities and recent volume."},{"title":"AI policy market monitoring","prompt":"Check Polymarket for any active prediction markets related to US AI regulation or executive orders — what are the current implied probabilities and sentiment?"}],"resultDescription":"Returns live Polymarket orderbook data for the queried topic, including implied Yes and No probabilities, 24h trading volume, market liquidity, and whale sentiment signals derived from large-order activity on the prediction market.","failureModes":["No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or low-confidence result","Polymarket data temporarily unavailable due to upstream API outage","Ambiguous topic keyword matches multiple markets — may return aggregate or top-match data","Payment failure via x402 protocol results in 402 response with no data returned","Topic string too vague to resolve to a specific market"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-sourced probability estimates for macro, crypto, or AI events from Polymarket's prediction market — especially when you want market-implied odds, orderbook depth, or whale sentiment rather than analyst forecasts or news sentiment. Prefer this over general news search when you need quantified probability estimates backed by real money.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-21T07:21:34.707Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"arxiv-digest-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-28273a6a"}