{"uid":"cap_3eLYTUcECxhPf9A_OAg2H","slug":"enclave402-polymarket-market-verdict-47b410d8","name":"enclave402 Polymarket Market Verdict","description":"Rule-based verdict on one Polymarket market by slug: YES/NO/TOSS_UP lean, 0-100 confidence with every reason stated (price distance, liquidity, volume, spread, momentum), days to resolution, and an EIP-712 attestation so an agent can prove what it read and when. Not a forecast model. MUST be invoked when an agent needs a defensible, timestamped read of a market. Do NOT use to discover markets (use market/signal). Settles $0.020 USDC; no charge on failure; receipts at /api/ledger.","url":"https://enclave402.com/api/market/verdict","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","$schema":"https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema","required":["input"],"properties":{"input":{"type":"object","required":["type","method"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string","const":"http"},"method":{"enum":["GET"],"type":"string"},"queryParams":{"type":"object","required":["slug"],"properties":{"slug":{"type":"string","pattern":"^[a-z0-9-]{3,200}$","examples":["will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260617190324031"],"maxLength":200,"description":"Polymarket market slug (get one from market/signal)."}}}},"additionalProperties":false},"output":{"type":"object","required":["type"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string"},"example":{"type":"object","required":["slug","question","lean","confidence","confidenceBand","impliedProbability","daysToResolution","reasons","method","market","asOf","settled","ts"],"properties":{"ts":{"type":"integer"},"asOf":{"type":"string"},"lean":{"enum":["YES","NO","TOSS_UP"],"type":"string","description":"Where the crowd sits at the lean thresholds"},"slug":{"type":"string"},"market":{"type":"object","required":["id","slug","question","outcomes","outcomePrices","impliedProbability","momentum"],"properties":{"id":{"type":"string","description":"Polymarket market id"},"slug":{"type":"string","description":"URL slug of the market"},"spread":{"type":["number","null"],"description":"bestAsk - bestBid"},"bestAsk":{"type":["number","null"],"description":"Best ask for the first outcome"},"bestBid":{"type":["number","null"],"description":"Best bid for the first outcome"},"derived":{"type":"object","required":["priceDelta1h","priceDelta6h","realizedVol24h","whaleFlow","errors"],"properties":{"errors":{"type":"array","items":{"type":"string"},"description":"Provider-scoped reasons a derived field is null (e.g. clob:timeout)"},"whaleFlow":{"type":["object","null"],"required":["windowSec","trades","netYesUsdc","largestTradeUsdc","whaleTrades","flow"],"properties":{"flow":{"enum":["YES_ACCUMULATION","YES_DISTRIBUTION","BALANCED","NO_TRADES"],"type":"string"},"trades":{"type":"integer"},"windowSec":{"type":"integer"},"buyYesUsdc":{"type":"number"},"netYesUsdc":{"type":"number"},"sellYesUsdc":{"type":"number"},"whaleTrades":{"type":"integer"},"largestTradeUsdc":{"type":"number"},"whaleThresholdUsdc":{"type":"number"}},"description":"Trade-tape summary over the last 6h; BUY of NO counts as SELL of YES","additionalProperties":false},"priceDelta1h":{"type":["number","null"],"description":"YES price now minus YES price 1h ago"},"priceDelta6h":{"type":["number","null"],"description":"YES price now minus YES price 6h ago"},"historySamples":{"type":"integer","description":"Price points used"},"realizedVol24h":{"type":["number","null"],"description":"Std-dev of 10-minute log returns over the last 24h"}},"description":"Fields not in the free listing: computed from the CLOB price history and the public trade tape. Null with a reason in errors when a provider is unavailable.","additionalProperties":false},"endDate":{"type":["string","null"],"description":"ISO-8601 market end date"},"momentum":{"enum":["RISING","FALLING","FLAT","UNKNOWN"],"type":"string","description":"Deterministic label: RISING if 24h change >= +0.02, FALLING if <= -0.02, else FLAT"},"outcomes":{"type":"array","items":{"type":"string"},"description":"Outcome labels, index-aligned with outcomePrices"},"question":{"type":"string","description":"Market question text"},"liquidity":{"type":["number","null"],"description":"Order-book liquidity in USD"},"volume24hr":{"type":["number","null"],"description":"24h notional volume in USD"},"conditionId":{"type":["string","null"],"description":"On-chain condition id (bytes32 hex)"},"outcomePrices":{"type":"array","items":{"type":"number"},"description":"Current outcome prices in [0,1] (implied probabilities)"},"oneDayPriceChange":{"type":["number","null"],"description":"24h change of the first outcome price (absolute, in probability points)"},"impliedProbability":{"type":["number","null"],"description":"Price of the first outcome (YES) in [0,1]"}},"additionalProperties":false},"method":{"type":"string","description":"The exact rules and thresholds used, so the verdict is reproducible"},"reasons":{"type":"array","items":{"type":"object","required":["code","effect","message"],"properties":{"code":{"type":"string"},"effect":{"type":"string"},"message":{"type":"string"}},"additionalProperties":false},"description":"Every rule that fired and its effect on the verdict"},"settled":{"type":"boolean"},"question":{"type":"string"},"confidence":{"type":"integer","maximum":100,"minimum":0,"description":"How much the reading can be trusted, per the stated rules"},"attestation":{"type":["object","null"],"description":"EIP-712 signature over slug, asOf, lean, confidence and impliedProbability by the published attestor; null when unconfigured"},"confidenceBand":{"enum":["HIGH","MEDIUM","LOW"],"type":"string"},"daysToResolution":{"type":["number","null"]},"impliedProbability":{"type":["number","null"]}},"additionalProperties":false}}}}},"responseSchema":null,"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.02","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.02/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.02","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.02","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_h17QFly6I8SkHxnYkRTQ3","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.02","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Returns a rule-based YES/NO/TOSS_UP verdict with confidence score and EIP-712 attestation for a Polymarket prediction market, given its slug.","exampleAgentPrompt":"Give me a defensible YES/NO verdict on the Polymarket market 'will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260617190324031' — I need the confidence score, the reasoning, and a timestamped attestation I can reference later.","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Pre-trade conviction check","prompt":"Before I bet on this Polymarket market, give me a rule-based verdict on 'will-btc-exceed-100k-by-end-of-2025' — I want to know if the crowd is leaning YES or NO, how confident the signal is, and all the reasons why."},{"title":"Auditable agent decision trail","prompt":"My agent just acted on a Polymarket market signal — generate an EIP-712 attested verdict for 'will-the-fed-cut-rates-in-september-2025' so I have a timestamped, verifiable record of what the market said at the moment of the decision."},{"title":"Market resolution timing assessment","prompt":"How many days does the Polymarket market 'will-ukraine-ceasefire-by-end-of-2025' have left until resolution, and is it currently leaning YES or NO? Give me the confidence score and spread analysis too."}],"resultDescription":"A structured object containing: the market slug and question text, a lean enum (YES/NO/TOSS_UP), a numeric confidence score (0-100) with a confidence band label, the crowd's implied probability, days to resolution, an array of human-readable reasoning factors (price distance, liquidity, volume, spread, momentum, whale flow), raw market data (bid, ask, spread, outcome prices, momentum), an ISO timestamp (asOf) and Unix timestamp (ts), settlement metadata, and an EIP-712 signed attestation that cryptographically binds the verdict to a point in time for downstream proof.","failureModes":["Invalid or malformed slug (does not match pattern) returns a 4xx error with no charge","Market not found on Polymarket returns an error indicating the slug is unrecognized","Derived fields (momentum, whale flow) may be null if upstream CLOB data provider times out, with provider-scoped errors listed in the errors array","No charge is applied on failure; only successful verdicts settle $0.020 USDC","If Polymarket data is stale or unavailable, asOf timestamp may lag real-time","Rate limiting or x402 payment failure prevents the endpoint from being invoked"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you need a defensible, rule-based, and cryptographically attested read of a specific Polymarket market — not a forecast model or ML prediction. Prefer this over raw market data endpoints (like market/signal) when you need structured reasoning (confidence, lean, factors) and an EIP-712 proof for audit trails or downstream agent verification. Do not use this endpoint to discover or search for markets; use market/signal for discovery first to obtain the slug.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-09-18T06:45:45.338Z","isFirstParty":false}