{"uid":"cap_2Q8FxMK1mBg28TLuJz0pn","slug":"x402-factory-cpi-above-consensus-evergreen-probability-92b7a64b","name":"x402-factory CPI Above Consensus Evergreen Probability","description":"Live probability: Will the next CPI print come in above consensus? — Stable evergreen URL for a recurring question: Will the next CPI print come in above consensus? Auto-resolves to the current market instance and rolls forward on resolution, so the answer is always about the next occurrence. Response adds current_slug and rolls_to_next_at to the standard probability shape.","url":"https://x402-factory.com/v1/evergreen/next-cpi-above-consensus?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","properties":{"properties":{"type":"string"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"json","example":{"data":{"slug":"us-cpi-above-3pct-2026-08","topic":"next-cpi-above-consensus","category":"economics","question":"Will July CPI year-over-year come in above 3.0%?","per_venue":[{"venue":"kalshi","implied_p":0.4551,"market_id":"KXUSCPIABOVE3PCT","volume_24h_usd":37332.2,"liquidity_score":0.888},{"venue":"polymarket","implied_p":0.4286,"market_id":"us-cpi-above-3pct-2026-08","volume_24h_usd":78321.95,"liquidity_score":0.886}],"divergence":0.0265,"probability":0.442,"current_slug":"us-cpi-above-3pct-2026-08","last_move_1h":-0.0034,"topic_question":"Will the next CPI print come in above consensus?","resolution_date":"2026-08-12","rolls_to_next_at":"2026-08-12","resolution_criteria_summary":"Resolves YES if BLS reports July CPI-U YoY above 3.0% (unrounded 3.05+)."},"meta":{"docs":"https://x402-factory.com/docs/probability.evergreen.next-cpi-above-consensus","sources":["kalshi","polymarket"],"version":"1.0.0","endpoint":"/v1/evergreen/next-cpi-above-consensus","data_mode":"live","freshness":"realtime","request_id":"req_00000000","generated_at":"2026-08-21T03:58:58.092Z"}}},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.02","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.02/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.02","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.02","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_uWjiWep0uaBA0xDcWqybf","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.02","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Returns the live market-implied probability that the next CPI print will come in above consensus, auto-rolling to the next occurrence after each resolution.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What's the current market probability that the next CPI print comes in above consensus — and has it moved much in the last hour? Give me the Kalshi vs Polymarket breakdown too.","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Pre-release inflation sentiment check","prompt":"Right before the CPI release tomorrow, what are prediction markets currently pricing in for the chance it beats consensus? Show me the Kalshi and Polymarket numbers separately."},{"title":"Macro trading signal dashboard","prompt":"Pull the live probability that the next CPI print will be above consensus and tell me how much that probability has shifted in the last hour — I want to know if the market is repricing inflation risk."},{"title":"Automated CPI market monitor","prompt":"Every morning, check what the current market-implied probability is that the next CPI report will exceed consensus, and alert me if the number moves more than 5 percentage points from yesterday."}],"resultDescription":"Returns a JSON object with a composite probability (0–1) that the next CPI print exceeds consensus, per-venue breakdowns from Kalshi and Polymarket (including implied probability, 24h volume, and liquidity score), a divergence metric between venues, the 1-hour price move, the current market slug, resolution date, resolution criteria summary, and a rolls_to_next_at timestamp indicating when the evergreen URL will auto-advance to the next CPI event.","failureModes":["Market not yet open for next CPI period — may return null probability or stale slug","Payment failure (402) if USDC payment is not properly attached","Venue data unavailable — one of Kalshi or Polymarket may be missing from per_venue array","Resolution gap — brief window after one market resolves and before the next opens where probability may be undefined","Rate limiting or gateway timeout on upstream venue APIs"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you need a stable, auto-rolling reference to CPI-above-consensus probability without having to track individual market slugs. It is superior to querying Kalshi or Polymarket directly because it aggregates both venues, computes a divergence signal, and automatically forwards to the next event after resolution — making it ideal for recurring monitoring workflows, macro dashboards, or any agent that needs current inflation surprise probability without slug management.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-21T13:29:27.327Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"x402-factory-cpi-above-consensus-evergreen-probability-92b7a64b"}