{"uid":"cap_21ZOfYoN0AYk5V7opB7tV","slug":"onchain-risk-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-1c298bc8","name":"Polymarket Live Prediction Market Odds & Implied Probability Feed","description":"Fetches live Polymarket prediction market orderbooks, implied Yes/No probabilities, volume, and whale sentiment for macro/crypto/AI events. (Live x402 v2, IETF MPP & MCP endpoint at https://onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities)","url":"https://onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev/v1/event-probabilities?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","required":["topic"],"properties":{"topic":{"type":"string","minLength":1,"description":"Prediction market topic, event keyword, or question to query live Polymarket odds"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"object"},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":[],"displayCostAmount":"0.01","displayCostAsset":"USD","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.01/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"mpp","network":"tempo","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_ifst0coZv3NuFfu4SaCUD","protocol":"mpp","methodType":"crypto","chain":"tempo","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.01","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fcd6edb6e08f4c7c32d4f71b54bda02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":"onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev","brandSlug":"onchain-risk-agentdiet-dev-mpp","brandBaseUrl":"https://onchain-risk.agentdiet.dev","brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Fetches live Yes/No implied probabilities, orderbook data, volume, and whale sentiment from Polymarket for any macro, crypto, or AI event topic.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the live Polymarket odds right now for the Fed cutting interest rates in July — give me the Yes/No implied probabilities and any whale sentiment signal.","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Crypto event probability check","prompt":"Pull the current Polymarket implied probability for Bitcoin hitting $150k before the end of 2025, including volume and any whale sentiment."},{"title":"Macro policy market odds","prompt":"What are live Polymarket traders implying for a US recession happening in 2025 — give me the Yes/No probabilities and current market volume."},{"title":"AI milestone prediction odds","prompt":"Check Polymarket right now for the odds that GPT-5 or a major new AI model launches this quarter — I want the implied probability and orderbook summary."}],"resultDescription":"Returns a structured object containing the matched Polymarket market question(s), current implied Yes and No probabilities derived from the live orderbook, total market volume, and whale/large-trader sentiment signals for the queried topic.","failureModes":["No matching Polymarket market found for the given topic keyword — returns empty or null result","Polymarket API unavailable or rate-limited — upstream fetch failure","Ambiguous topic matches multiple markets — result may include multiple market entries requiring disambiguation","Payment not processed (x402 flow failure) — endpoint returns 402 without data","Very low-volume markets may have unreliable or stale orderbook data"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you need real-time crowd-implied probabilities for macro, crypto, political, or AI events from Polymarket's decentralized prediction market — particularly when you want live orderbook-derived odds rather than static forecasts or analyst estimates. Prefer this over news APIs when the goal is market consensus probability rather than narrative coverage.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-21T07:21:42.013Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"onchain-risk-agentdiet-dev-polymarket-live-prediction-market-odds-f374aea4"}