{"uid":"cap_1RWMxmdMGdzoZ5eQmGbv7","slug":"degenscan-intel-binary-market-forecaster-74208655","name":"Degenscan Intel Binary Market Forecaster","description":"Cross-asset market event intelligence for AI trading agents. Priced routes return HTTP 402 with x402 v2 payment requirements (USDC on Base) unless X-API-KEY is sent or the free trial header X-Free-Trial: 1 is present (100 calls/day/IP). Information and analytics only — not investment advice.","url":"https://intel.degenscan.io/v1/oracle/forecast?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"POST","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","properties":{"runs":{"type":"number"},"rounds":{"type":"number"},"context":{"type":"string"},"question":{"type":"string"},"population":{"type":"number"},"resolves_at":{"type":"string"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"json","example":{"poll":"/v1/oracle/forecast/3f9a1c2b7d4e","eta_s":150,"status":"queued","forecast_id":"3f9a1c2b7d4e","done_example":{"ci80":[0.24,0.41],"edge":-0.031,"base_rate":0.227,"confidence":"medium","market_odds":0.35,"probability":0.319,"commitment_hash":"sha256…"}}},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.25","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.25/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.25","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.25","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_NuwbMtmaHplEXL0x5jokI","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.25","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Returns a calibrated YES-probability for a binary market question using Monte Carlo simulation of LLM agent societies combined with base-rate-anchored expert panel synthesis, grounded in live market data.","exampleAgentPrompt":"Run a Degenscan forecast on whether the Fed will cut rates at the September 2025 FOMC meeting — use 500 simulation runs, 3 rounds, a population of 20 agents, and set the resolution date to September 17, 2025.","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Polymarket edge hunting for crypto traders","prompt":"I want to know if there's edge on the Polymarket question 'Will Bitcoin exceed $120k before August 1, 2025?' — run 1000 Monte Carlo simulations with 5 rounds and a population of 30, resolving August 1, 2025, and tell me the fair probability vs current market odds."},{"title":"Macro event probability for trading desk","prompt":"What's the calibrated probability that US CPI comes in above 3.5% for the June 2025 print? Use 500 runs and 4 rounds with a population of 20 agents, resolving June 11, 2025 — I need the 80% confidence interval and base rate too."},{"title":"Geopolitical binary forecast for risk model","prompt":"Forecast whether the EU will impose new sanctions on Russia before December 31, 2025 — run 750 simulations with 3 rounds and 25 agents, and give me the edge against current prediction market odds along with the key probability drivers."}],"resultDescription":"An async job is initiated (HTTP 202) returning a forecast_id and poll URL. On completion, the result includes: a calibrated YES probability (e.g. 0.319), an 80% confidence interval (e.g. [0.24, 0.41]), the base rate used for anchoring, the current market odds, the edge vs market (e.g. -0.031), a confidence level string, and a SHA-256 commitment hash for auditability. Results are backed by a public Brier score track record.","failureModes":["Payment not received (HTTP 402) — x402 payment of $0.25 USDC required before forecast is processed","Invalid question format or ambiguous binary framing — returns validation error","Resolution date in the past or malformed ISO timestamp — returns 422","Simulation timeout if runs/rounds/population are set very high — eta_s may be long; poll until done","Poll endpoint returns 'queued' or 'running' until computation completes — agents must poll asynchronously","Network error or service downtime — retry with exponential backoff"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need a statistically calibrated probability for a binary yes/no market question, especially when you want to compare against existing Polymarket odds to identify edge. It is superior to simple sentiment analysis or price-based heuristics because it combines Monte Carlo LLM agent simulation with base-rate anchoring and live market data. Best suited for prediction market traders, quantitative researchers, and AI trading agents that need a defensible probability estimate with a confidence interval and an audit trail via commitment hash.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-01T06:45:24.711Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"degenscan-intel-binary-market-forecaster-74208655"}