{"uid":"cap_1AJX4m2En7L05LWNtuDVH","slug":"momus-us-midterms-2026-prediction-model-8427bc56","name":"Momus US Midterms 2026 Prediction Model","description":"Momus US-midterms 2026 model: Senate and House control probabilities and seat distributions from a correlated Monte Carlo (20,000 draws, shared national swing + race noise, ratings + polling layer), priced against the live Polymarket and Kalshi contracts with Momus's edge per market. Weekly run.","url":"https://x402.momusai.io/midterms?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","$schema":"https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema","required":["input"],"properties":{"input":{"type":"object","required":["type","method"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string","const":"http"},"method":{"enum":["GET"],"type":"string"},"queryParams":{"type":"object","required":[],"properties":{}}},"additionalProperties":false},"output":{"type":"object","required":["type"],"properties":{"type":{"type":"string"},"example":{"type":"object"}}}}},"responseSchema":null,"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.05","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.05/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.05","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.05","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_rXm38ukbx1pG2zBkJeC8l","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.05","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Returns Senate and House control probabilities and seat distributions for the 2026 US midterms, derived from a correlated Monte Carlo simulation priced against live Polymarket and Kalshi contracts with Momus edge estimates.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What does Momus's 2026 midterms model say right now — give me the Senate and House control probabilities, the seat distributions, and where Momus sees the biggest edge against the live Polymarket and Kalshi contracts?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Midterm prediction market arbitrage check","prompt":"Pull the latest Momus midterms forecast and tell me where the model sees the most edge versus what Polymarket and Kalshi are currently pricing for Senate and House control in 2026."},{"title":"Senate seat count distribution briefing","prompt":"What's Momus's current Monte Carlo distribution of Senate seats for each party in the 2026 midterms — I want the full seat range, not just who wins control."},{"title":"Daily midterm forecast update for newsletter","prompt":"Get me today's Momus 2026 midterm numbers — Senate and House win probabilities for Democrats and Republicans — so I can include them in my weekly election briefing."}],"resultDescription":"A structured response containing: probability of each party controlling the Senate and House, full seat-count distributions from 20,000 Monte Carlo draws (incorporating correlated national swing and per-race noise, ratings, and polling), fair-value odds for each chamber, live Polymarket and Kalshi contract prices for comparison, and Momus's estimated edge per market. Output reflects a weekly model run.","failureModes":["Model not yet run for current week — stale or unavailable data","Payment not completed or USDC balance insufficient for $0.05 fee","Endpoint temporarily unavailable due to infrastructure or update cycle","No polling or ratings update available for current week — model may reflect prior week's priors"],"whenToPreferThis":"Choose this endpoint when you need a probabilistically rigorous, correlated Monte Carlo forecast specifically for the 2026 US midterm elections (Senate and House), particularly when you also want direct comparison to live Polymarket and Kalshi contract prices and explicit edge estimates. Prefer this over generic election forecast aggregators when you need market-facing probabilities and edge signals rather than just poll averages.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-13T12:37:10.830Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"momus-us-midterms-2026-prediction-model-8427bc56"}