{"uid":"cap_0ATpZlWyxf-wR5HiOMTMA","slug":"polls-karbach-digital-constituency-race-simulation-26bcc5a4","name":"polls.karbach.digital — Constituency Race Simulation","description":"Unabhängige Wahlsimulation für 18 deutsche Wahlen. Monte-Carlo-Modell mit 10.000 Szenarien pro Wahl, kalibriert und intern validiert an 34 historischen Wahlen (Leave-One-Out, MAE ±1.27 Pp). 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Coalitions are arithmetic majorities only, not statemen...","source":{"polls":"dawum.de","processing":"polls.karbach.digital (Max Karbach)","polls_license":"ODbL 1.0","polls_license_url":"https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/"},"project":"Ein Projekt von Karbach.Digital (https://karbach.digital)","updated_at":"2026-10-18T12:55:10.873908","uncertainty":"Win probabilities from simulation with correlated errors and per-party sigma; rating: sicher, wahrscheinlich, umkämpft."}},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.02","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"registry","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.02/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.02","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.02","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_18KAmcWOK45xCnO5CAvFI","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.02","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":null,"unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Returns Monte-Carlo win probabilities, first-vote projections, and race ratings for a specific German Bundestag constituency based on 10,000 simulated scenarios.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the win probabilities for each party in Bundestag constituency 299 — who is favoured to take the direct mandate and how safe is the seat?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Journalist covering swing constituencies","prompt":"I'm writing about competitive races in the upcoming Bundestagswahl — what are the win probabilities and race rating for constituency 61, and is it considered safe, likely, or contested?"},{"title":"Researcher tracking incumbent vulnerability","prompt":"Can you pull the Monte-Carlo simulation results for Wahlkreis 200? I want to see the incumbent party, the current favourite, and the expected margin so I can assess how at risk the seat is."},{"title":"Citizen checking home district forecast","prompt":"I live in Wahlkreis 75 — can you tell me who is projected to win the first vote there and what the probability is for each party based on the latest simulation?"}],"resultDescription":"A JSON object containing: win probabilities (0–1) for each party, first-vote percentage projections per party, the projected favourite, race rating (sicher/wahrscheinlich/umkämpft), expected margin in percentage points, incumbent party, state (Bundesland), election identifier, simulation metadata (n=10,000, method, sigma), data source attribution, and last-updated timestamp. 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Prefer this over national-level poll aggregators when the user's question is about a specific constituency's competitiveness, the favourite for the first vote (Erststimme), or the incumbent's chances — rather than national seat projections or coalition arithmetic.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-28T12:39:59.844Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"polls-karbach-digital-constituency-race-simulation-26bcc5a4"}