{"uid":"cap_-qJrssxNQoj-MdxM0any8","slug":"polls-karbach-digital-german-election-simulation-by-election-id-2e8a4db8","name":"polls.karbach.digital — German Election Simulation by Election ID","description":"Unabhängige Wahlsimulation für 18 deutsche Wahlen. Monte-Carlo-Modell mit 10.000 Szenarien pro Wahl, kalibriert und intern validiert an 34 historischen Wahlen (Leave-One-Out, MAE ±1.27 Pp). 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Not a prediction and not a voting recommendation. 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Give me the probability breakdown and current poll averages for all major parties."},{"title":"Monitoring data quality for thin-poll election","prompt":"How reliable is the current simulation for the Saarland 2027 election — how many polls have been used, how old is the latest one, and what's the data quality score?"}],"resultDescription":"A JSON object containing: election metadata (name, date, region, seat count, seat allocation method), per-party results (poll average, median simulation result, 95% CI for vote share and seats, parliament entry probability), strongest-party probability breakdown, arithmetic coalition majority probabilities, recent individual poll results with institute names, a data quality assessment (score 1–10, poll count, recency), and Monte Carlo model metadata (version, simulation count, weighting method). 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Prefer it over raw polling aggregators when the user wants scenario analysis or wants to understand electoral uncertainty quantitatively.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-28T12:39:29.727Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"polls-karbach-digital-german-election-simulation-by-election-id-2e8a4db8"}