{"uid":"cap_-TSSj2qSNH79flUwkXWiY","slug":"hodlodds-crash-odds-api-for-solana-memecoins-557889a7","name":"HodlOdds Crash Odds API for Solana Memecoins","description":"0.04 means about 4 in 100 tokens like this one lose 90% or more of their price within the next 60 minutes. Higher means riskier, but a low number does not mean safe: smaller or slower drops are not counted, and the odds change minute by minute. Paid crash odds for covered SOL-quoted pump.fun graduates. Normal risk and board routes are fresh or free; the separate opt-in last-known route serves clearly labelled stored odds up to 30 minutes old. All examples are illustrative, not live predictions. Crash = a completed one-minute close in SOL at least 90% below the reference within 60 minutes. Odds, not guarantees. Not financial advice. Paid access is open only while /v1/meta reports public_beta true. Payment can use configured Solana or Base USDC via x402 v2 exact authorization; Base payment does not make experimental non-SOL token forecasts covered.","url":"https://api.hodlodds.com/v1/risk/%7Bmint%7D?utm_source=zero.xyz","method":"GET","headers":{},"bodySchema":{"type":"object","properties":{"properties":{"type":"string"}}},"responseSchema":{"type":"json","example":{"row":{"band":{"n":77515,"hi":0.05,"lo":0.02,"basis":"Historical weekly BF refits, Sep 1–Oct 14 excluding Sep 20; already-seen evidence, not this frozen fit.","historical_observed":0.038},"mint":"11111111111111111111111111111111pump","name":"Illustrative token","asset":"solana:5eykt4UsFv8P8NJdTREpY1vzqKqZKvdp/token:11111111111111111111111111111111pump","chain":"solana:5eykt4UsFv8P8NJdTREpY1vzqKqZKvdp","dd_60":0.96,"ret_5":-0.014,"ret_60":0.023,"symbol":"EXAMPLE","age_min":240,"summary":"3.1% chance of a 90%+ price drop within 60 minutes (about 3.1 in 100). Low odds are not a safety signal.","platform":"pumpfun","resq_sol":125.5,"trades_5":32,"chain_name":"Solana","confidence":{"band":{"n":77515,"hi":0.05,"lo":0.02,"obs":0.038,"pred":0.0337,"positives":2945.57},"basis":"Historical validation of weekly BF refits, September 1 through October 14, 2026 excluding September 20; already-seen data, not measured calibration of the frozen serving fit.","level":"high","reasons":[],"direction":null,"rule_version":"hodlodds.confidence.v1"},"p_crash_60m":0.031,"market_status":"available"},"as_of":1792249200,"model":{"id":"example-bf-frozen","hashes":{"meta":"bbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb","model":"aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa"}},"schema":"hodlodds.answer.v1","covered":true,"coverage":{"active":660,"scored":650,"universe":"Illustrative active SOL-quoted pump.fun graduates","abstained":10,"experimental_quotes":["USDC","PUMP"],"experimental_scored":75,"experimental_abstained":4},"issued_at":1792249230,"definition":"A crash is a completed 1-minute close in SOL at least 90% below the reference price within 60 minutes.","expires_at":1792249350,"horizon_end":1792252800}},"example":null,"exampleRequest":null,"tags":["x402"],"displayCostAmount":"0.01","displayCostAsset":"USDC","priceDynamic":false,"priceHint":null,"priceStatus":"priced","priceSource":"probe","requiresHandshake":false,"reviewCount":0,"rating":{"score":"0.00","successRate":"0.00","reviews":0,"stars":null,"state":"unrated"},"availabilityStatus":"unknown","priceObserved":null,"sessionDeposit":null,"pricing":{"kind":"static","summary":"$0.01/call","primary":{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"},"accepted":[{"kind":"static","protocol":"x402","network":"base","amountUsd":"0.01","per":"call","confidence":"exact"}]},"paymentMethods":[{"uid":"pm_dkHAO4uA4zICFQhyx54to","protocol":"x402","methodType":"crypto","chain":"base","mode":"charge","costAmount":"0.01","costPer":"request","priority":0,"asset":"EPjFWdd5AufqSSqeM2qN1xzybapC8G4wEGGkZwyTDt1v","unit":"request","depositMicros":null,"planRef":null}],"brandName":null,"brandSlug":null,"brandBaseUrl":null,"brandDocsUrl":null,"whatItDoes":"Returns a probabilistic crash-odds score for a specific Solana pump.fun memecoin, estimating the likelihood of a 90%+ price drop within the next 60 minutes.","exampleAgentPrompt":"What are the crash odds for the Solana pump.fun token with mint address 11111111111111111111111111111111pump — how likely is it to drop 90% or more in the next 60 minutes?","exampleUseCases":[{"title":"Pre-trade memecoin risk check","prompt":"Before I buy into this pump.fun token — mint address 7xKXtg2CW87d97TXJSDpbD5jBkheTqA83TZRuJosgAsU — can you pull the HodlOdds crash probability so I know how risky it is right now?"},{"title":"Automated portfolio crash monitoring","prompt":"Every 5 minutes, check the HodlOdds crash odds for each of the pump.fun tokens in my watchlist and alert me if any of them hit a p_crash_60m above 0.15."},{"title":"Token screening before bot entry","prompt":"My trading bot is about to enter a position on the Solana memecoin with mint Fg6PaFpoGXkYsidMpWTK6W2BeZ7FEfcYkg476zPFsLnS — pull the current 60-minute crash odds from HodlOdds and include the confidence level and the odds band so I can decide whether to proceed."}],"resultDescription":"A JSON object containing: the 60-minute crash probability (p_crash_60m, e.g. 0.031), a human-readable summary, confidence level and reasons, historical odds band (hi/lo/n), short-term price returns (ret_5, ret_60), trade count, reserve SOL (resq_sol), token age in minutes, market status, model ID and hashes, coverage metadata, and expiry timestamp. Also includes the crash definition and whether the token is covered.","failureModes":["Token mint not covered by HodlOdds (not a pump.fun graduate or not SOL-quoted) — returns covered: false or abstains","Payment not provided or invalid x402 authorization — returns 402 Payment Required","Public beta closed (/v1/meta reports public_beta false) — access denied","Stale or unavailable model data — confidence level may be reduced or request may fail","Invalid mint address format — likely 400 Bad Request","Base USDC payment used for non-SOL experimental token — forecast not covered"],"whenToPreferThis":"Use this endpoint when you need a fresh, per-token probabilistic crash risk score for a specific Solana pump.fun graduate token right now. Prefer this over the last-known route when you need current odds rather than cached (up to 30-min-old) data. Prefer this over the board route when you need detailed per-token metadata (confidence, odds band, returns) rather than a summary list. Note that this endpoint costs $0.01 USDC per call via x402 and only covers SOL-quoted pump.fun graduates while public beta is active.","instructions":null,"reviewSummary":null,"reviewSummaryHighlights":null,"reviewSummaryConcerns":null,"reviewSummaryGeneratedAt":null,"activationCount":0,"lastUsedAt":null,"lastSuccessfullyRanAt":null,"lastHealthCheckAt":"2026-10-30T00:34:13.137Z","isFirstParty":false,"canonicalSlug":"hodlodds-crash-odds-api-for-solana-memecoins-557889a7"}